Thinking about the Trade Deadline

Well the non-waiver deadline again fast approaches, and what to make of it? The Jays are in the lucky position to have at least 5 useful players (Buck, Overbay, Downs, Frasor, Encarnacion and Gregg) that they really have no interest in keeping that could bring varying degrees of something useful back. They also have 1 thing that could bring something really good back (Bautistsa), that it's a toss up as to whether they want to bring back, and a bunch of things (everybody else in the bullpen, a starter if the price is right, Wells?)  that could be traded as well. There is every possibility (hope? Wallace and Arencibia and Snyder oh my!) this could be a very different looking team by the time the deadline comes and goes.

From that first group I would say to atos, trade them for whatever you think the best deal is, with the only potential keep to think twice about being Encarnacion. The haul already seems to be pretty good from the Gonzalez + parts for Escobar + Part trade, so I don't think there is any reason to not roll the dice a little, just squeeze whoever for everything you can get right up to the last minute. Encarnacion is a little more tricky, as you probably have to eat salary to trade him, and he still may develop into something, and is (I believe) still under control for some? years.

The really tricky guy here is Bautista. I think the answer here is trade him if somebody offers you a good everyday player, or a good starting pitcher or closer (though those things are highly unlikely), or the mother lode of prospects (what idiot would do that?). I have no faith at all that Bautista can repeat this year again, but what I do have faith in is that he can be a 750-800 OPS 3rd Baseman who hits 7-8th in the lineup and plays stellar defence and chips in 15-25hr. Any team that is going to contend needs a player that like, and finding one to play 3rd is not that easy. Unless you can trade him for a guy who's going to take over 2nd and put Hill at 3B, or for a crazy haul of stupidity, then I don't see the benefit of a trade.

The really interesting thing to see is if atos can do something completely out of left field, like swoop in and snatch a Haren from a trade between a contender and dumper. That would be pretty cool, and something that I just don't understand why it doesn't happen more often at the trade deadline.

In conclusion, what I see is a lot of parts coming back, and those parts being packaged up with some other stuff that's already here over the winter, for the couple of parts that really need to be added for the future. With everything else hopefully being depth. I really doubt any kind of "franchise" player is coming back in these deals. Really that's good, but one can dream.

The Alex Gonzalez Trade

There are really only 2 things to be said about this trade

1) You hope that some worse veteran shortstop doesn't get traded for a better return between now and the trade deadline, because atos really has to take the best he think he can get for these assets. Gonzalez cannot play any better than he did the first 1/2 of the season, so I can't see how he could do anything in the 2nd 1/2 to make the Jays better. But if somebody trades the equivalent of John Macdonald for a bona fide mlb starting pitcher...

2) If Tim Collins really does turn into something, it will be an interesting example of atos' ability to judge the talent in his own possession. I fully expect you have to give something to get something, and the Braves weren't going to make a trade of a cheap youngish player they control even if they are tired of him for an older guy who could go to crap any moment without getting something more valuable back. If the Braves really do get a steal here then it will be illuminating. If anybody should know whether or not Collins has it, it should be the Jays.

All Star Break Roundup

Let's be honest here, there isn't really anything interesting to say about this team that isn't a rehash of things already said. The outlook for the rest of the season probably isn't very good, with a lot of solace taking coming from individual performance and not team success. Basically i'm looking forward to Wallace, Arencibia and Drabek making their debuts sometime, and what atos can get for the parts of this team that don't figure into the future plans.

If anybody needs an example of why we should think the future is bright for this team, I give you no better example than tonights opponent the Baltimore Orioles. They were supposed to better this season, and they are 29-59. The Jays who were supposed to be much worse are 44-45. Can you name me the Baltimore SP that you'd rather have than any of the Jay's SP's? I don't really even have to bother thinking about that question.