Well if one shortstop who can't hit but "saves a run a game" with his glove is good, then 2 must be great! I guess that's what we have to take from this. Question is how are you going to get them both on the field at the same time to save all those runs they aren't producing with their bats?
Actually this does make some pretty good sense I think. As bad as Gonzalez is as a hitter, he's quite a bit better than McDonald. The best OPS McDonald ever posted in a "full" season was 2005, .651 in 166 AB. His "most productive" season was 2007 when he posted .612 while somehow getting 327 AB. Gonzalez at least is a pretty good bet to have a near 700OPS season, and posted 793 in 2007.
He'll probably be the leadoff hitter for the Jays, who the hell else have they got? That just got me thinking about John McDonald as the everyday leadoff hitter for 162 games. Cold shivers.
He'll probably also get traded to a contender looking for a SS, maybe even Boston again! Another reason why this kind of makes sense. Then McDonald can be the everyday SS, as his fans demand, and pile up the strikeouts.
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Stupid thoeries of baseball purists to be put to the test
I don't assume this would make it to the Jays website if it wasn't assured to happen. So I guess we might get to see how bad offense an with McDonald, Ruiz and Dopirak getting 1500+AB could be. Yes it's possible the other 2 could surprise and be perfectly ok, or even better, but McDonald getting 500+AB in a season could be epic.
All things being equal, trade him out of the division
Roy Halladay of course. Not that there is very much of interest yet on the trading Roy front, just a lot of people imagining things between writers, bloggers and their "sources". But the latest from these people in the "know" is that Boston is going to make a serious push, and if that is true, can the Yankees be far behind?
Now I know that this opinion is not exactly trend setting, but I think it's pretty valid. If the Jays actually plan on being competitive in 2011 or 2012, they don't need to make their main competition any stronger in those years. So unless you think one of those 2 teams is going to cripple themselves with the trade (how likely is that?), and you think you can get close to equal value from somebody outside the division, hold out.
If you can trade him somewhere that the Jays are never likely to face him again, even better. Because I really don't wan't this as a topic every time the Jays roll into his town or him into Toronto. Is it ok to pray for a trade to the NL followed shortly by th end of inter league play?
I assume all this is obvious to the people that matter. If the Jays do end up trading Halladay in the division, I'm going to put that in the "don't plan on competing any time soon" evidence pile.
Now I know that this opinion is not exactly trend setting, but I think it's pretty valid. If the Jays actually plan on being competitive in 2011 or 2012, they don't need to make their main competition any stronger in those years. So unless you think one of those 2 teams is going to cripple themselves with the trade (how likely is that?), and you think you can get close to equal value from somebody outside the division, hold out.
If you can trade him somewhere that the Jays are never likely to face him again, even better. Because I really don't wan't this as a topic every time the Jays roll into his town or him into Toronto. Is it ok to pray for a trade to the NL followed shortly by th end of inter league play?
I assume all this is obvious to the people that matter. If the Jays do end up trading Halladay in the division, I'm going to put that in the "don't plan on competing any time soon" evidence pile.
Friday, November 20, 2009
Funny because it's true
I hate stereotypes as much as the next guy, but this is just too good to be true.
Don't know what to make of this
I read this whole thing yesterday and I don't get it, I'm scratching my head after just the first 2 paragraphs.
After that it just gets more confusing, and the atos quotes, as usual, just don't clarify anything.
Basically I agree with most of what is said here about the rumored ticket price increases in theory. But I also agree here that it looks really bad. I can understand that the current Jays management wants to push as much blame onto the recently departed, and make you look to the future. But I think the message needs to be clearer. If you're message is going to be constantly repeating "We'll be better in the future, Promise. Pay more for some tickets now", great. But if you are going to actually say more than that it should make some sense to people who have a memory.
h/t drunkjaysfans
If the Blue Jays were one or two pieces away from immediately being a contender for the World Series, rookie general manager Alex Anthopoulos would strongly consider being a major player in the free-agent marketplace.Huh? They were arguably only "one or two pieces away from immediately being a contender" last offseason (and 2007 and 2008), why didn't they do anything then? And if that's true why are we supposed to believe that they will do those last one or two moves in the future?
The reality for Toronto, coming off a disappointing fourth-place finish in the American League East...Really, it was disappointing? I mean who exactly thought they were going to do better than 4th place before the season started? I bet if you go back and look at the pre-season predictions 4th place and 75 wins was probably about the best anybody expected. Maybe the hot start led to some increased expectations, but anybody who wasn't a moron should have known that once the pitching injuries started and Janssen didn't show anything, even .500 was going to be a huge stretch. If they had done better than they did wouldn't that have been a huge surprise of a JP Riccardi saving season? Before last season Romero was still the worst draft pick in the history of baseball.
After that it just gets more confusing, and the atos quotes, as usual, just don't clarify anything.
Basically I agree with most of what is said here about the rumored ticket price increases in theory. But I also agree here that it looks really bad. I can understand that the current Jays management wants to push as much blame onto the recently departed, and make you look to the future. But I think the message needs to be clearer. If you're message is going to be constantly repeating "We'll be better in the future, Promise. Pay more for some tickets now", great. But if you are going to actually say more than that it should make some sense to people who have a memory.
h/t drunkjaysfans
Why not just let them use their hands?
I really don't like soccer, let's get that straight. Clearly soccer players are great athletes who can do some pretty amazing things, they just happen to play a lousy game in which you hardly ever get to see any of those amazing things. Instead you pointlessly watch them chase the ball around a giant field, not scoring on the huge net wondering what the hell is going on. Why is that offside? Why do they keep going backwards? Don't they want to score?
Also for some reason soccer trainers have learned that the miracle cure for injuries is spraying water on them. Why trainers in all other sports in the entire world have not learned this is a great mystery.
So anyways there is this great outrage about Ireland losing out on the World Cup because a French player used his hand in the winning play and the official missed it. Apparently this is more than just a player gaining advantage and not getting caught, it's cheating of the highest order and the game needs to be replayed or somebody needs a hand cut off or something.
Being a hater of soccer I usually don't care about these things, but I caught a slow motion replay of the play in question on the news and I have to say that was pretty awesome! A bunch of guys crashing the net, ball comes out of nowhere, player knocks it down with his hand, to his FOOT, passes it to another guy who heads it in! Right in front of the net! Action! Score!
If the guy hadn't cheated I'm guessing the ball would have gone out the end and nothing would have happened. Like normal. How is that better?
Also for some reason soccer trainers have learned that the miracle cure for injuries is spraying water on them. Why trainers in all other sports in the entire world have not learned this is a great mystery.
So anyways there is this great outrage about Ireland losing out on the World Cup because a French player used his hand in the winning play and the official missed it. Apparently this is more than just a player gaining advantage and not getting caught, it's cheating of the highest order and the game needs to be replayed or somebody needs a hand cut off or something.
Being a hater of soccer I usually don't care about these things, but I caught a slow motion replay of the play in question on the news and I have to say that was pretty awesome! A bunch of guys crashing the net, ball comes out of nowhere, player knocks it down with his hand, to his FOOT, passes it to another guy who heads it in! Right in front of the net! Action! Score!
If the guy hadn't cheated I'm guessing the ball would have gone out the end and nothing would have happened. Like normal. How is that better?
Friday, November 13, 2009
5 Easy Ways to Recognize a Contender
I didn't really like yesterdays post about what I think atos needs to do to build a contending team, so let's look at it from another direction. The idea of putting together a plan of do this do that is actually pretty stupid. I mean really you can't see the future, and as an outsider you certainly can't see into the murky abyss of the Jays, let alone the rest of MLB. No matter how great a fan you think you are. What you really need to do is have a goal, and judge if where you are at any given time is close to that goal and can you reasonably see the steps needed to get to the goal.
In this spirit, I give you what the Jays need to have in order to be a serious contender in 2011 (or any year for that matter, I'm just hoping they can be a contender by 2011).
In order of importance.
1. Starting Pitching
This is the prime component of any contender, skimp on this and you're screwing yourself in ways that really can't be made up for in other areas. So you need to have 5 real starters, 2, that are going to give you 200+ innings, 2 150 to 180 and 1 that is going to get through the 5th inning 2/3rds of the time. Then you need 2 guys at least who can sit in the bullpen and the minors and make spot starts that don't require the bullpen to start working in the 3rd inning.
2. Closer and Setup
You need a closer that is going to be able to get 35+ saves without blowing 10. I'm not talking about a perfect season, or 1 or 2 blown saves that were really the defense's fault. But a competent guy that nobody really has anything to complain about even if he isn't the best in the league. The setup guy should be at least good enough that fans are complaining that he should really be the closer.
3. Offense
I actually consider this the 3rd most important component of a team. If you have the first 2 and competent hitters, all 700OPS guys with a couple 800OPS and some decent depth like a real good LH pinch hitter, and you're not giving up on free offense with a lousy DH, then you should be able to contend. When you get into making excuses for a guy with an OPS around 700 batting 3rd and a couple of 600OPS guys or lousy/multiple DH because you're cheap, then that's when you get in trouble.
If you really want to make sure of things, you need at least 5 starters with an 800+OPS, and the the other 4 should be in the 700's. If the top end is higher you can go a little lower on the bottom. And at least one bench player who's a threat. And no more than one everyday platoon.
I don't care about speed, it's overrated and very expensive when attached to an actually good hitter. It's more important to have good base runners, than fast ones. And good base running can be taught.
5. The Bullpen
If you have 1 and 2, then whoever you have in the bullpen is going to be fine, because they won't be used much. Or if you have 2-3 good guys they'll get all the chances and the rest will just mop up, and won't matter at all. What I'm saying is this is the least of your problems, if you have taken care of the most important stuff. And if you have taken care of the most important stuff finding what you need here is fairly easy.
So there you go. Those are the goals you need to reach in order to be a contender. Could you do it with less, possibly. But the farther you are away from these goals, the more luck you need, and luck isn't in your control.
As always, enjoy next years 180k's by Randy Ruiz. Hopefully he does enough next season to make somebody want to trade for him.
In this spirit, I give you what the Jays need to have in order to be a serious contender in 2011 (or any year for that matter, I'm just hoping they can be a contender by 2011).
In order of importance.
1. Starting Pitching
This is the prime component of any contender, skimp on this and you're screwing yourself in ways that really can't be made up for in other areas. So you need to have 5 real starters, 2, that are going to give you 200+ innings, 2 150 to 180 and 1 that is going to get through the 5th inning 2/3rds of the time. Then you need 2 guys at least who can sit in the bullpen and the minors and make spot starts that don't require the bullpen to start working in the 3rd inning.
2. Closer and Setup
You need a closer that is going to be able to get 35+ saves without blowing 10. I'm not talking about a perfect season, or 1 or 2 blown saves that were really the defense's fault. But a competent guy that nobody really has anything to complain about even if he isn't the best in the league. The setup guy should be at least good enough that fans are complaining that he should really be the closer.
3. Offense
I actually consider this the 3rd most important component of a team. If you have the first 2 and competent hitters, all 700OPS guys with a couple 800OPS and some decent depth like a real good LH pinch hitter, and you're not giving up on free offense with a lousy DH, then you should be able to contend. When you get into making excuses for a guy with an OPS around 700 batting 3rd and a couple of 600OPS guys or lousy/multiple DH because you're cheap, then that's when you get in trouble.
If you really want to make sure of things, you need at least 5 starters with an 800+OPS, and the the other 4 should be in the 700's. If the top end is higher you can go a little lower on the bottom. And at least one bench player who's a threat. And no more than one everyday platoon.
I don't care about speed, it's overrated and very expensive when attached to an actually good hitter. It's more important to have good base runners, than fast ones. And good base running can be taught.
4. Defense
Needs to be solid, I'm not talking about 9 gold glove winners, but if people laugh when you suggest your ss, 2b, cf, c and 3b should at least be considered, then you don't have solid defense. Basically if you are playing Steve Sax every day good luck.
5. The Bullpen
If you have 1 and 2, then whoever you have in the bullpen is going to be fine, because they won't be used much. Or if you have 2-3 good guys they'll get all the chances and the rest will just mop up, and won't matter at all. What I'm saying is this is the least of your problems, if you have taken care of the most important stuff. And if you have taken care of the most important stuff finding what you need here is fairly easy.
So there you go. Those are the goals you need to reach in order to be a contender. Could you do it with less, possibly. But the farther you are away from these goals, the more luck you need, and luck isn't in your control.
As always, enjoy next years 180k's by Randy Ruiz. Hopefully he does enough next season to make somebody want to trade for him.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
So what do I think the Jays should do this offseason?
So you are sitting there thinking "OK Mr. Internet Snark, you think you're so smart, what do YOU think atos should do now that he has his soft, smooth inexperienced girly hands on the rough and leathery reigns of power!"
Buy gloves!
Ha Ha - no really, I worked on that for a long time.
Anyways. I noticed SI.com had their top 50 Free Agents posted, and really there were only 2 names on it that I thought would make any sense. Felipe Lopez and Rich Harden. That's pretty much it, and only if they can be gotten cheap. And I'm probably just throwing Lopez in for fun because he's young. You know what forget it, Rich Harden. That's it. I don't feel like constructing an argument for Lopez.
(As a weird aside when searching Felipe Lopez on Baseball-Reference.com, he is the only one that comes up, I would have thought there were like 200 Felipe Lopez's that played minor and major ball over the years).
If Harden comes cheap then I could see him making some sense. The Jays can offer a low pressure situation to get himself right over the next couple of years, and maybe by the time he's ready to be good, they'll be good and then he can go find some big bucks somewhere else. I think this makes some special sense if Halladay gets traded. I'm not interested in the "Canadian Angle", just the young and cheap angle.
Otherwise if one of the available "proven starting pitchers" gets left without a chair and is basically willing to pay the Jays to pitch with them for a season, go for it.
As far as trades - strip it to the bone baby. I keep Hill, Lind, Snyder, Romero, Marcum, Rzep and Cecil. Anybody not on that list, probably including Rzep and Ceil, if I think I'm getting future value - good bye! No 3B for next season, who cares, I'm going to suck anyways.
Of course the reality isn't you can't just trade everybody for pure prospects. There has to be something put together that looks like it can be developed into some kind of cohesive whole in the off season by the end of 2010, or else you're the Pirates. So it can't be a fire sale. If atos goes more than 2 moves where you can't see the reasonable upside in 2011, I think you have to get nervous.
Max possible value for Halladay whenever you can get it will be fine. I just don't want to see somebody in management try and tell me that they think as long as they have him they can contend, or they are trying to make a serious attempt to re-sign him. Please, I am not stupid.
One thing I don't try and do is trade Wells at any cost. If something workable comes up then great, if not the crazed desire to be rid of him could make you miss other good opportunities to build to something in the future. Just leave him be, who know's maybe he'll put it all back together. The money is gone.
Otherwise, enjoy that 180K season from Randy Ruiz. And Cito playing every "veteran" he can get his hands on for no reason at all. And hope there's a light at the end of the tunnel in September 2010.
Buy gloves!
Ha Ha - no really, I worked on that for a long time.
Anyways. I noticed SI.com had their top 50 Free Agents posted, and really there were only 2 names on it that I thought would make any sense. Felipe Lopez and Rich Harden. That's pretty much it, and only if they can be gotten cheap. And I'm probably just throwing Lopez in for fun because he's young. You know what forget it, Rich Harden. That's it. I don't feel like constructing an argument for Lopez.
(As a weird aside when searching Felipe Lopez on Baseball-Reference.com, he is the only one that comes up, I would have thought there were like 200 Felipe Lopez's that played minor and major ball over the years).
If Harden comes cheap then I could see him making some sense. The Jays can offer a low pressure situation to get himself right over the next couple of years, and maybe by the time he's ready to be good, they'll be good and then he can go find some big bucks somewhere else. I think this makes some special sense if Halladay gets traded. I'm not interested in the "Canadian Angle", just the young and cheap angle.
Otherwise if one of the available "proven starting pitchers" gets left without a chair and is basically willing to pay the Jays to pitch with them for a season, go for it.
As far as trades - strip it to the bone baby. I keep Hill, Lind, Snyder, Romero, Marcum, Rzep and Cecil. Anybody not on that list, probably including Rzep and Ceil, if I think I'm getting future value - good bye! No 3B for next season, who cares, I'm going to suck anyways.
Of course the reality isn't you can't just trade everybody for pure prospects. There has to be something put together that looks like it can be developed into some kind of cohesive whole in the off season by the end of 2010, or else you're the Pirates. So it can't be a fire sale. If atos goes more than 2 moves where you can't see the reasonable upside in 2011, I think you have to get nervous.
Max possible value for Halladay whenever you can get it will be fine. I just don't want to see somebody in management try and tell me that they think as long as they have him they can contend, or they are trying to make a serious attempt to re-sign him. Please, I am not stupid.
One thing I don't try and do is trade Wells at any cost. If something workable comes up then great, if not the crazed desire to be rid of him could make you miss other good opportunities to build to something in the future. Just leave him be, who know's maybe he'll put it all back together. The money is gone.
Otherwise, enjoy that 180K season from Randy Ruiz. And Cito playing every "veteran" he can get his hands on for no reason at all. And hope there's a light at the end of the tunnel in September 2010.
Things I would have trouble caring about even if you paid me, and then I would probably have to give back the money
Mike Danton: The Untold Story - Like this couldn't have been on W5 or something.
I'd rather watch Scooby Doo episodes featuring Scrappy with my kids.
I'd rather watch Scooby Doo episodes featuring Scrappy with my kids.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Thoughts on the Yankees Winning the World Series
Given that when the game started I was sitting in a Hospital Emergency room finishing up some treatment and by the time Pedro had really blown the game I was pretty much out of it and asleep, I'm not quite sure what happened, and can't make any big comments on that game.
Look the Yankees won, they proved to be the best team this season, they spent by far the most money again so you know, they should.
What bugs me is that when they win, it's like it just wipes away the fact that they haven't won for the past 8 years. Like this championship absolves not only them of the past 8 years of rank failure, but the vast majority of the media that just lazily assumes the Yankees will win every year as well. I mean that's really what's going on here. I know it seems like when the Yankees win and the media goes nuts celebrating it that what the media is saying is, "thank god the Yankees have saved us from having to cover all the heathens and barbarians that aren't them." That's a big part of it of course, but the biggest part is: "Thank you Yankees, for covering for the fact that we are wrong about everything just about all the time."
Look the Yankees won, they proved to be the best team this season, they spent by far the most money again so you know, they should.
What bugs me is that when they win, it's like it just wipes away the fact that they haven't won for the past 8 years. Like this championship absolves not only them of the past 8 years of rank failure, but the vast majority of the media that just lazily assumes the Yankees will win every year as well. I mean that's really what's going on here. I know it seems like when the Yankees win and the media goes nuts celebrating it that what the media is saying is, "thank god the Yankees have saved us from having to cover all the heathens and barbarians that aren't them." That's a big part of it of course, but the biggest part is: "Thank you Yankees, for covering for the fact that we are wrong about everything just about all the time."
The Charade is Over
It's been quite a while since I have posted due to illness and trying to recover in the real world from said illness, so I've missed a lot and this post has been evolving in my head for a week and a half or so. Suffice it to say that I think the development of events have shown that I was right here.
And look, I'm fine with it. They don't have to contend next season, I think that makes sense. If you asked me 5 years ago if i thought the Jays would be contenders in 2009-10 I would have said no, because clearly they are trying to contend in 2006-08 and you have to step back. The problem is for some reason they screwed up the contending in 2006-08. Hopefully they have learned their lesson and will seriously attempt to contend in 2011-2013.
Could they have contended next season if they spent $140mil+? Probably, but the likelihood is your going to get a Mets instead of whatever you want if you do that, and nobody wants that.
The problem I have is that their PR push, and the idiot media is still trying to sell that money is no problem and there will be perennial contention or something else that doesn't make sense, in some vain attempt to keep season ticket holders from cancelling or something. What worries me is that this continuing shoveling of BS means that when the rubber hits the road again in 2 years the people above atos and Beeston are once again going to screw this thing up when the real money needs to be spent. Because they are still where the real problem lies.
Nothing about hiring atos, or Beeston staying, for reasons stated here and here, makes feel any better about that.
And look, I'm fine with it. They don't have to contend next season, I think that makes sense. If you asked me 5 years ago if i thought the Jays would be contenders in 2009-10 I would have said no, because clearly they are trying to contend in 2006-08 and you have to step back. The problem is for some reason they screwed up the contending in 2006-08. Hopefully they have learned their lesson and will seriously attempt to contend in 2011-2013.
Could they have contended next season if they spent $140mil+? Probably, but the likelihood is your going to get a Mets instead of whatever you want if you do that, and nobody wants that.
The problem I have is that their PR push, and the idiot media is still trying to sell that money is no problem and there will be perennial contention or something else that doesn't make sense, in some vain attempt to keep season ticket holders from cancelling or something. What worries me is that this continuing shoveling of BS means that when the rubber hits the road again in 2 years the people above atos and Beeston are once again going to screw this thing up when the real money needs to be spent. Because they are still where the real problem lies.
Nothing about hiring atos, or Beeston staying, for reasons stated here and here, makes feel any better about that.
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