5 Easy Ways to Recognize a Contender

I didn't really like yesterdays post about what I think atos needs to do to build a contending team, so let's look at it from another direction. The idea of putting together a plan of do this do that is actually pretty stupid. I mean really you can't see the future, and as an outsider you certainly can't see into the murky abyss of the Jays, let alone the rest of MLB. No matter how great a fan you think you are. What you really need to do is have a goal, and judge if where you are at any given time is close to that goal and can you reasonably see the steps needed to get to the goal.

In this spirit, I give you what the Jays need to have in order to be a serious contender in 2011 (or any year for that matter, I'm just hoping they can be a contender by 2011).

In order of importance.

1. Starting Pitching

This is the prime component of any contender, skimp on this and you're screwing yourself in ways that really can't be made up for in other areas. So you need to have 5 real starters, 2, that are going to give you 200+ innings, 2 150 to 180 and 1 that is going to get through the 5th inning 2/3rds of the time. Then you need 2 guys at least who can sit in the bullpen and the minors and make spot starts that don't require the bullpen to start working in the 3rd inning.

2. Closer and Setup

You need a closer that is going to be able to get 35+ saves without blowing 10. I'm not talking about a perfect season, or 1 or 2 blown saves that were really the defense's fault. But a competent guy that nobody really has anything to complain about even if he isn't the best in the league. The setup guy should be at least good enough that fans are complaining that he should really be the closer.

3. Offense

I actually consider this the 3rd most important component of a team. If you have the first 2 and competent hitters, all 700OPS guys with a couple 800OPS and some decent depth like a real good LH pinch hitter, and you're not giving up on free offense with a lousy DH, then you should be able to contend. When you get into making excuses for a guy with an OPS around 700 batting 3rd and a couple of 600OPS guys or lousy/multiple DH because you're cheap, then that's when you get in trouble.

If you really want to make sure of things, you need at least 5 starters with an 800+OPS, and the the other 4 should be in the 700's. If the top end is higher you can go a little lower on the bottom. And at least one bench player who's a threat. And no more than one everyday platoon.

I don't care about speed, it's overrated and very expensive when attached to an actually good hitter. It's more important to have good base runners, than fast ones. And good base running can be taught.

4. Defense

Needs to be solid, I'm not talking about 9 gold glove winners, but if people laugh when you suggest your ss, 2b, cf, c and 3b should at least be considered, then you don't have solid defense. Basically if you are playing Steve Sax every day good luck.

5. The Bullpen

If you have 1 and 2, then whoever you have in the bullpen is going to be fine, because they won't be used much. Or if you have 2-3 good guys they'll get all the chances and the rest will just mop up, and won't matter at all. What I'm saying is this is the least of your problems, if you have taken care of the most important stuff. And if you have taken care of the most important stuff finding what you need here is fairly easy.

So there you go. Those are the goals you need to reach in order to be a contender. Could you do it with less, possibly. But the farther you are away from these goals, the more luck you need, and luck isn't in your control.

As always, enjoy next years 180k's by Randy Ruiz. Hopefully he does enough next season to make somebody want to trade for him.