Kyle Drabek has Stuff

So i was lucky on wednesday as Shaw added SN1 to my viewing list and I was able watch some of Drabek's debut in HD even! Yeah me! Although I still intend to be very bitter when I start getting charged for this channel, and actually haven't completely decided what i'm going to do when that day comes, but i digress.

My impression was that I don't quite remember seeing stuff like Drabek showed in his debut from any Jays pitcher in their rookie debut before. Dustin McGowan certainly looked that good in 07 and 08 when he had it going, but before that his stuff never had that look. Brandon Morrow didn't have stuff like that in his first start, though he has of course shown it since. I don't remember Halladay's stuff looking so wicked in his first start, or really even the second one. I can't remember Steib's debut at all. Maybe Kelvim Escobar is the only one I can think of, his stuff may have actually looked better. Juan Guzman perhaps.

Either way Drabek certainly has the stuff to pitch in the major leagues, there is no question. That combination of moving fastball, killer hard curve and cutter/slider/whatever? is certainly going to get people out. And he's trying to add a change too. The only question is going to be how long it's going to take him to roll that up into a package that can start consistently, or if he doesn't just how good a closer he could be. A WHIP of 2.0 isn't going to get you anywhere, but that can't last. If he doesn't come to camp as a total mess next season he is in the rotation, there have to be no questions asked. There is nothing for him to prove at AAA unless he's horrible in the mlb.

If McGowan could somehow come back to what he was, I cannot imagine a starting rotation of Romero, Cecil, Morrow, McGowan and Drabek going at their best one after the other, it would be unbelievable.

Something to Care About!

So the season is grinding to a sort of satisfactory yet boring end. And while it's certainly ending off way better than anybody could have predicted before it started, the fact that the season was going to end positively was established a long time ago now. So the recent news that Kyle Drabek is going to some up and start 3 games is very welcome. Hopefully he can look impressive and pitch really well and even win 2 of 3, but as long as he doesn't fall on his face, it should be a nice story for the offseason. The other positive stories would of course be familiar boring faces like Cecil, Romero, Marcum, Batista etc, but we all know them so they can't actually be any good or exciting

Anyways, I am looking forward to Drabek's first start, however as I just noticed on the schedule that game has now flipped from being a sportsnet game to a sportsnet1 game. Kind of like last thursday's game switched all of a sudden. Maybe I don't care anymore now.

What I did on my Summer Vacation

So summer is turning into fall, and the kids are back in school and the seasons in it's last month. Where have I been? Well basically i took a months hiatus and stupidly put my efforts into being a regular commenter at djf. This was a dumb thing to do on my part, I should have known better, as I have been there before.

Basically it all started ok, just the occasional comment, then more comments, then baiting a troll or 2 for entertainment. Before i knew it was anxiously awaiting replies to my comments so i could smack down idiots. anyways it culminated on sunday with me trying to post some really concise replies destroying some idiot who thinks travis snider can't hit a fastball, on an ipod touch. thing was the touch kept posting my replies before i could finish them, and i was also supposed to be enjoying friends and family and beers, and i suddenly thought to myself: "what are you doing, you know better than this, this guy will never agree with you no matter how right you are, go enjoy your life". and so i did, and here i am back posting on my own blog, not caring whether or not anybody comments or not.

I would be lying if i didn't credit this post and this one at obsidian wings with helping to turn me around. Always remember the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

It was nice to be able to swear liberally though.

Happy Stories

2 of 3 at LAA was great in and of itself, but the excellent start by rzep and then the extension of the worst draft pick in history and his own great start sunday was a fantastic topper. 62-55, I never would have thought it. I honestly didn't think they would be 55-62 before the season started. So now it's 3 against the sub-500 A's (who always seem tough on the jays especially recently in oakland). They could actually have 10 wins more than losses by the end of the week and maybe all over boston too for 3rd place.

This of course on either side of the Rogers Sportsnet 1 mess, but whatever, let's not let it drag us down.

Why no Drabek?

I'm jumping to conclusions of course, I have no idea that we aren't going to see Kyle Drabek (or Zach Stewart for that matter) making starts in MLB this season. But I have to say I would really like to. I see that Cecil is going to be held back a couple of days and Morrow is going to skip a start, so Mills will make one more and then go back down and Rzep will come back up. I have also heard rumblings that a 6-man rotation might be possible at this point. I think this all makes perfect sense. Other than Romero I don't think you can just let any of the starters keep pitching until the end of the season without having a plan to limit their innings, including Marcum. But at the same time just shutting them down isn't any better. I'd rather they mix in some of these guys and let them finish off their seasons with some big league experience.

I can see an argument I suppose for keeping down the service time, and preserving minor league options, but Stewart and Drabek are really to good for that. They can't reasonably go back to AA, and AAA makes no sense for a season next year unless they legitimately can't win a job on the MLB team next year. And if that's the case then you have to start looking a trading some of the "extra" pieces you have to get the pieces you need.

UPDATE: Stop him before he hurts himself again!


h/t djf - apparently cecil is getting held back because he cut open his knee climbing the dugout stairs and required some stitches. This after of course carving himself up cutting up some chicken in spring training. What can come next? one of those accidents where you get sucked into a treadmill...

Greatest. Weekend. Ever.

Well not really, but it was pretty damned good, as has really the last 6 games. It looked like the good times were going to stop rolling after 6 games with the yankees and tb. 5 wins later, great starts by romero and cecil, an unbelievable debut by arencibia and 1-hit, 17 K magnificence by morrow, they just keep rolling.

So rather than go on about the bizarre fact that arencibia sat yesterday or brett wallace's 400OBP lets just celebrate the fact that they Jays are still above .500 with 51 games to play and might even run down the red sox for 3rd place.

I would never, ever have thought it.

Beating a Dead Horse with Very Little Enthusiasm

So I did something today that I wasn't looking forward to all weekend, I read this article on BlueJays.com about Gose. It wasn't as bad as I thought and worse than I thought all at the same time. All it says of course is Gose is somebody atos really wanted, and that he's not doing so great in High-A but they have high hopes and Wallace is really great but that's the price you have to pay. I then went and read this blog entry by Wilner on the trade and got the same feeling. Add that to all the entries at djf and tao of stieb, including this one about the lack of action and at the trade deadline and well....

Look it's all great to feel good about the future, but you know whats always true about the future, it's coming. So what are you planning to do about it? Because I see some nice talk about how all this is going to come together some day, but nobody at all is putting any how or when to it. It's all beginning to sound very Underpants Gnomelike to me. Draft Picks->?->Contention!!!

Something I keep seeing and hearing coming up in defense of the Gose trade is that all the scouts and advisors agreed that he was just super, so that makes it ok. What I don't hear or see anywhere, and maybe I'm just missing it, is that any of the scouts and advisors thought it was a great idea to trade Wallace for Gose right now, and that really is the issue isn't it?

And here's the "little enthusiasm" part of the title. I really don't have it for going on an on about these things, and I'm open to the fact that I might easily be wrong about this. Maybe atos is some kind of genius who can build a contender in the next 2 seasons while still trading away some of the parts to do it for players who may not be ready for 4 or 5. It just seems to me that if you want to make a team competitive in the near term, you should mostly ignore the long term and focus all your efforts on that near term. Part of doing that is actually putting parts of that plan to the test, making decisions on them, and adjusting accordingly. Yes the whole idea of this blog is that I don't pay attention to the media, but if It is important to this team to say that they have some kind of timetable they are working on, you'd think I would find it when i went looking for it.

Or to put it another way, atos seemed to keep saying that he had to act on Gose now because in the future he would not be able to get him, because he would be too expensive. I think this is a little bit ridiculous and proves too much. After all if Wallace is as good as you keep saying, maybe you could have just traded him 2 years from now straight up for Gose anyways once he actually starts to prove it.

Small Comfort

I'm not sure which feels better, clubbing AJ Burnett or Josh Beckett, so hopefully Beckett will pitch against the Jays next time they meet up and I can compare.

Trade Deadline Roundup

I wanted to get to this earlier but given the long weekend and the no internet, drinking, boating, camp fires, playing with the kids and other various things that distracted my attention, I just couldn't. Also there was the fact that they JUST DIDN'T DO ANYTHING!

Well they did do one thing and that thing was freaking unbelievable. How exactly it makes sense to trade a player that is knocking down the door to play right now for a player that may not play for 4 years mystifies me. I understand that atos has wanted this guy forever and when he saw his chance he felt he just had to take it, but maybe he needs to learn some impulse control.

Hard on the heels of this mystery, we get the news that none of Overbay, Downs, Gregg, Frasor, Buck or Bautista could be moved for something acceptable. Look I am convinced on Bautista, since next year he's under control and even if he falls all the way back to pre-2010 levels, he's still an acceptable 3B and a plus utility player, just probably very expensive. Downs has a pretty good chance at being type A, though a lot of things have to fall into place, and the payoff isn't for years, so maybe it's worth the gamble, though I say no. Everybody else on the list, they should be gone for whatever they can get. The team cannot by hurt by moving any of them, and players like Arencibia, need to be here, Snider and Lind don't need Overbay in the player rotation taking away at bats and playing time at 1B, and how many pitchers from the minor leagues could see some innings over august if these relievers weren't here. I for one would like to see more Purcey.

Very disappointing. Maybe the wallet is going to open over the next 2 seasons and there will be some FA signings to make up for this loss of opportunity to improve the team for 2012 contention. But there is no reason this team can't compete then, and this was a golden opportunity to move in that direction. Right now it looks like the plan is to acquire as many prospects as draft picks as possible and look really tough and then compete - who the hell knows when???

Yankees up next to start the august beat down, but don't worry it will all be good because Draft Picks!!!

Thinking about the Trade Deadline

Well the non-waiver deadline again fast approaches, and what to make of it? The Jays are in the lucky position to have at least 5 useful players (Buck, Overbay, Downs, Frasor, Encarnacion and Gregg) that they really have no interest in keeping that could bring varying degrees of something useful back. They also have 1 thing that could bring something really good back (Bautistsa), that it's a toss up as to whether they want to bring back, and a bunch of things (everybody else in the bullpen, a starter if the price is right, Wells?)  that could be traded as well. There is every possibility (hope? Wallace and Arencibia and Snyder oh my!) this could be a very different looking team by the time the deadline comes and goes.

From that first group I would say to atos, trade them for whatever you think the best deal is, with the only potential keep to think twice about being Encarnacion. The haul already seems to be pretty good from the Gonzalez + parts for Escobar + Part trade, so I don't think there is any reason to not roll the dice a little, just squeeze whoever for everything you can get right up to the last minute. Encarnacion is a little more tricky, as you probably have to eat salary to trade him, and he still may develop into something, and is (I believe) still under control for some? years.

The really tricky guy here is Bautista. I think the answer here is trade him if somebody offers you a good everyday player, or a good starting pitcher or closer (though those things are highly unlikely), or the mother lode of prospects (what idiot would do that?). I have no faith at all that Bautista can repeat this year again, but what I do have faith in is that he can be a 750-800 OPS 3rd Baseman who hits 7-8th in the lineup and plays stellar defence and chips in 15-25hr. Any team that is going to contend needs a player that like, and finding one to play 3rd is not that easy. Unless you can trade him for a guy who's going to take over 2nd and put Hill at 3B, or for a crazy haul of stupidity, then I don't see the benefit of a trade.

The really interesting thing to see is if atos can do something completely out of left field, like swoop in and snatch a Haren from a trade between a contender and dumper. That would be pretty cool, and something that I just don't understand why it doesn't happen more often at the trade deadline.

In conclusion, what I see is a lot of parts coming back, and those parts being packaged up with some other stuff that's already here over the winter, for the couple of parts that really need to be added for the future. With everything else hopefully being depth. I really doubt any kind of "franchise" player is coming back in these deals. Really that's good, but one can dream.

The Alex Gonzalez Trade

There are really only 2 things to be said about this trade

1) You hope that some worse veteran shortstop doesn't get traded for a better return between now and the trade deadline, because atos really has to take the best he think he can get for these assets. Gonzalez cannot play any better than he did the first 1/2 of the season, so I can't see how he could do anything in the 2nd 1/2 to make the Jays better. But if somebody trades the equivalent of John Macdonald for a bona fide mlb starting pitcher...

2) If Tim Collins really does turn into something, it will be an interesting example of atos' ability to judge the talent in his own possession. I fully expect you have to give something to get something, and the Braves weren't going to make a trade of a cheap youngish player they control even if they are tired of him for an older guy who could go to crap any moment without getting something more valuable back. If the Braves really do get a steal here then it will be illuminating. If anybody should know whether or not Collins has it, it should be the Jays.

All Star Break Roundup

Let's be honest here, there isn't really anything interesting to say about this team that isn't a rehash of things already said. The outlook for the rest of the season probably isn't very good, with a lot of solace taking coming from individual performance and not team success. Basically i'm looking forward to Wallace, Arencibia and Drabek making their debuts sometime, and what atos can get for the parts of this team that don't figure into the future plans.

If anybody needs an example of why we should think the future is bright for this team, I give you no better example than tonights opponent the Baltimore Orioles. They were supposed to better this season, and they are 29-59. The Jays who were supposed to be much worse are 44-45. Can you name me the Baltimore SP that you'd rather have than any of the Jay's SP's? I don't really even have to bother thinking about that question.

How the Staypuft Marshmallow Pitcher Got His Groove Back

Well I have no idea actually, but who won't take 7 shutout innings from your #5 starting pitcher. Baring some crazy major change in direction somewhere Litsch is just holding this spot until Drabek is ready to come up and ultimately claim his spot. But everything the pasty white chunky dude does to increase his trade value is a good thing. Come late July he might look pretty good to some desperate team in any division other than the AL East. 

And I still think he has an outside chance to claim the ultimate prize in the who has a better career contest, Jesse Litsch or Joba Chamberlain?

Stupid answers to stupid questions

Good game yesterday, was a nice workmanlike win with some hitting. They are still above .500 so I guess that's something.

I thought this was quite the humorous headline at bluejays.com though.

Bautista searching for answers to end slump

Hey I got your answer right here - You Suck! Accept it.

Glad to be of help.

I kind of like Bautista, he certainly seems to be proving that he's a legitimate answer at 3B for a couple of years if you don't need to have him hit higher than 8th or maybe 7th in the lineup. I think Encarnacion is going to find himself on the outs when Snider gets back. But let's be honest, he's never really going to be more than an 800OPS guy on a regular basis.

The Apocalypse is Boring

When you think apocalypse you think blood red skies raining fire on the earth, winged beasts clashing in the air, half-man / half-animal armies ravaging the countryside. You know good times. Whatever the Jays did this weekend is about as far from that as possible. I think I may never want to watch baseball again after that display.

Anyways at least Romero and Morrow pitched ok. Litsch I really don't care about unless he pitches great. If he keeps sucking I'm sure somebody else can be along in no time.

Marcum in Petco tonight, let's see how mister "ace" does at stopping this losing streak. Well, I might not be "seeing" it.

The Apocalypse so far

Not so bad. 4-5 after 9 games against the Rays and Yanks. That's pretty encouraging i think, and Cecil pitched great. You definitely want to see how Romero and Morrow do in Colorado. Marcum is allowed to have a lousy game every once in a while. And exciting news, the Stay-Puft Marshmallow Pitcher is back! We get to seem him on sunday, although you get the feeling if he doesn't do a lot quickly it may be the last we ever see of him.

Now of course 15 straight games against above 500 NL teams. This is not a recipe for Blue Jay success, they have enough trouble against below 500 NL teams. I don't mind low scoring well pitched losses, losing 9-1 sucks.

How are things going in that Apocalypse?

7 games in and the Jays finally had their first really bad one, a Tallet start, imagine that. 3-4 after 7 games, I wouldn't have thought it was possible.

Of course they could still end up 3-6. I would certainly have thought that was likely.

Draft Roundup Thoughts

My main thought as always is that nobody will really know anything about this draft for about 5 years, and anybody saying otherwise is selling snake oil.

In general terms though i'm pretty impressed. I have always thought that if I was running a draft I would pick all pitchers and shortstops. Because you can never have enough pitching, and if you've got it you can always trade it for something else. And shortstops, because they can play anywhere. Except maybe catcher, but you can always get a catcher, as long as you don't need a really good one.

So what does atos do in his first draft. By my count of the first 36 picks 21 are pitchers, and 4 or 5 are shortstops. I'm all for that. There was even a catcher. 

Why is Dickie Thon's kid playing High School ball in Puerto Rico?

Anyway, we can talk about it all again in 5 years.

What caught my attention in this whole Wilner Thing

 I've been casting sideways glances at this Wilner issue, I haven't read any of the news reports about it just what djf and Tao have had to say. But this from The National Post's Jeremy Sandler via djf did actually catch my attention. Sandler is reporting on what happened in the original conversation at the press scrum from his notes and recordings:

Gaston: “He was probably, I think Camp finished the inning, didn’t he?”

Wilner: “Downs came in and struck the last guy out.”

Gaston: “He came in and struck who out?”

Wilner: “Brignac.”

Gaston: “Well, evidently I think sometimes you need to get some stats and see what they hit off each other and then you’ll get that answer.”

See it appears to me here that Gaston doesn't remember what happened. Now I'm not going to go out on a limb and say that he didn't know what was happening while it was happening, I'm just going to say he didn't remember. Or I guess more rightly didn't care to try remembering what happened in a situation, a press conference, where he was almost certainly going to get asked about why the crucial thing happened in the game last night. I mean I don't know, maybe the rules are that you don't ask questions about the previous game in the pre-game press conference, or scrum or whatever it is, and Wilner breaks these rules on a regular basis, so that's why he's in trouble, because this was the last straw. But you think you might hear one peep about that from somebody. But I haven't really been looking, so maybe i'm not getting all sides through my sources, don't know.


I just think it's weird that Cito seems to think it's ok to put it out there that he had no idea what happened only the next day. Do players and managers really have that much disregard for the press? I mean if I'm Wilner my response to Cito not caring about this is "WTF dude, you were there, didn't any of this actually matter?" not helpfully reminding him of the particulars. This is what passes for even sports journalism?

Trading Draft Picks

For some reason I went looking for MSM info on the draft today and I ended up on this article by Tom Verducci about how to fix the draft. I usually like his stuff, I can read it every couple of months whereas most MSM writers I can't read at all. His fix #1: Allow clubs to trade picks. He gives some fairly weak reasons why clubs should be able to trade draft picks and then lists his main reason against it as: "The argument against trading draft picks basically goes something like this: Scott Boras."

Look I don't love me some Scott Boras anymore than the next sports fan, but that isn't the main reason. The main reason not to trade draft picks is, nobody's going to do it. I don't mean that nobody would ever not trade a draft pick, what I mean is there would probably be a little flurry the first couple of drafts, and then it would tail off to basically never happen once everybody sees that it doesn't work.

The reason for this is pretty clear, draft picks are a completely unknowable commodity in baseball. Yes I realize Strassburg is about to make his debut, and David Price had a pretty quick rise to the majors and top flight starter status. But those are seriously anomalous happenings, and Strassburg hasn't done thing one yet against MLB hitters, and may not for another couple of years. Has anybody noticed how things have been going for Joba Chamberlain recently? Some people may want to point out John Olerud, but then I'll point out he was drafted in the 3rd round. Somebody was going to trade down for him because he was so good?

I just don't understand how this is supposed to work here, Verducci's best rationale for why some team would want to trade for a higher draft pick is this:

But what if a contender picking late in the first round wanted to trade up to pick a relief pitcher who might pitch this year down the stretch? Why not allow the Pirates to trade that pick to get a prospect and a later first-round pick?

Ok, I'll bite. If said team was going to part with enough great assets to loosen up this phenom from a team that is bad enough to be picking high in the draft, why wouldn't they just trade those assets for a proven pitcher. Or probably actually fewer of those assets to get a proven pitcher. If I'm the GM of a the team with the pick of a player who may be so good he can play the same year he's picked, why am I giving it up unless I'm basically raping who I'm trading with? And If I'm the one being raped why am I doing it for somebody that I have truly no idea will be helping me anytime in the near future?


Deeper into this, I'm not sure what it is that the teams that are getting the draft pick are supposed to be trading away. If I'm the Nationals last year what are the Yankees supposed to trade me for Strassburg, that I want more than him? And why do the Yankees want to give it up? Hey Nats, "you have what could be a shot at one of the greatest pitchers of all time, who you can maybe control for relatively cheap for 8-10 years. Why don't you give him to us for a guy we thought the same thing about not so long ago but isn't really working out, and Phil Hughes." If I'm the Nats, the answer is Click. And if the Nats come looking for a package of minor league prospects, then I have to say: "Wait a minute, why am I trading 3 guys who I'm pretty sure there's a chance at least one of will be good soon for a guy who I'm going to pay a lot of money and may never do anything?"


It's the old Bird in the Hand argument and you can see if you think about it for a little, that it won't take long for a couple of these trades to turn into complete short term disasters before nobody ever wants to do it again. I mean look no further than this rationalization from Anonymous Scouting Director about Pittsburgh's #2 position in this years draft:

"It doesn't look like there's a lot of impact in this draft. Teams picking in the middle of the first round are in good shape. If baseball were like football, they'd be looking to trade down. They could get close to same player if they drafted lower."

Um yeah, but if the there isn't a lot of the impact in this draft, why exactly is anybody looking to draft up, genius? Pittsburgh could be looking to trade down all it wants but that doesn't mean they are going to find any suitors. What's the motivation, boredom?

The worst part of this thinking is the ever present "If Baseball were Like Football". Dude baseball isn't like football. Every year colleges produce about 100 or maybe even more players that can walk right onto an NFL field and play. In baseball it doesn't happen more than once a year, if that. Hell if you added in players with a full year of A ball to the list how many even play in the majors on average the next season? Aren't you a Scouting Director? You need me to point this out?

Again I'm not saying it would never happen. I could kind of see trading picks for picks. If number 2 absolutely wanted the first pick and the defacto #2 pick was still pretty damn good. So yeah maybe let it happen, but you just won't see any good effect from it. At all.

The best part of the article though is his reasoning for solution #2:

The draft must remain true to its original mission statement: Get the best players to the worst teams.

And we are doing that by allowing the worst teams to trade away the best picks I guess? I don't know my head spins.