Thinking about the Trade Deadline

Well the non-waiver deadline again fast approaches, and what to make of it? The Jays are in the lucky position to have at least 5 useful players (Buck, Overbay, Downs, Frasor, Encarnacion and Gregg) that they really have no interest in keeping that could bring varying degrees of something useful back. They also have 1 thing that could bring something really good back (Bautistsa), that it's a toss up as to whether they want to bring back, and a bunch of things (everybody else in the bullpen, a starter if the price is right, Wells?)  that could be traded as well. There is every possibility (hope? Wallace and Arencibia and Snyder oh my!) this could be a very different looking team by the time the deadline comes and goes.

From that first group I would say to atos, trade them for whatever you think the best deal is, with the only potential keep to think twice about being Encarnacion. The haul already seems to be pretty good from the Gonzalez + parts for Escobar + Part trade, so I don't think there is any reason to not roll the dice a little, just squeeze whoever for everything you can get right up to the last minute. Encarnacion is a little more tricky, as you probably have to eat salary to trade him, and he still may develop into something, and is (I believe) still under control for some? years.

The really tricky guy here is Bautista. I think the answer here is trade him if somebody offers you a good everyday player, or a good starting pitcher or closer (though those things are highly unlikely), or the mother lode of prospects (what idiot would do that?). I have no faith at all that Bautista can repeat this year again, but what I do have faith in is that he can be a 750-800 OPS 3rd Baseman who hits 7-8th in the lineup and plays stellar defence and chips in 15-25hr. Any team that is going to contend needs a player that like, and finding one to play 3rd is not that easy. Unless you can trade him for a guy who's going to take over 2nd and put Hill at 3B, or for a crazy haul of stupidity, then I don't see the benefit of a trade.

The really interesting thing to see is if atos can do something completely out of left field, like swoop in and snatch a Haren from a trade between a contender and dumper. That would be pretty cool, and something that I just don't understand why it doesn't happen more often at the trade deadline.

In conclusion, what I see is a lot of parts coming back, and those parts being packaged up with some other stuff that's already here over the winter, for the couple of parts that really need to be added for the future. With everything else hopefully being depth. I really doubt any kind of "franchise" player is coming back in these deals. Really that's good, but one can dream.

Stupid answers to stupid questions

Good game yesterday, was a nice workmanlike win with some hitting. They are still above .500 so I guess that's something.

I thought this was quite the humorous headline at bluejays.com though.

Bautista searching for answers to end slump

Hey I got your answer right here - You Suck! Accept it.

Glad to be of help.

I kind of like Bautista, he certainly seems to be proving that he's a legitimate answer at 3B for a couple of years if you don't need to have him hit higher than 8th or maybe 7th in the lineup. I think Encarnacion is going to find himself on the outs when Snider gets back. But let's be honest, he's never really going to be more than an 800OPS guy on a regular basis.

Thoughts before the season starts

I didn't keep my blogging up the last couple of games because basically, i lost interest in the last 3 or 4 games of spring. The only really interesting thing to happen was that Brandon Morrow threw very well, regularly getting the ball up to mid-90's speed and no reported pain. I still need to do a longer post on him, maybe before his first start, but basically I think he's got the potential to be everything that McGowan was supposed to be. If McGowan ever makes it back to be what he looked like he might these 2 together would be deadly.

Final thought on Tallet and Eveland making the rotation over Cecil and Rzep? Well rzep got injured so that cleared things up. Eveland, if you were going to trade for him and then stick him in the bullpen or risk losing him to waivers when he pitched as well as he did, why did you bother trading for him? So it makes sense to give him a shot.

Tallet - well really what i got to say there is i'm betting that this is a move that's done as much for the benefit of the players as that management thinks he can be legit starting pitcher with more upside than any of the other options. Tallet has been a good soldier as long as he's been with the team, and i can bet he's popular with his teammates. He took the ball a lot last season and "ate" innings even when he wasn't very good and could have said he just wanted to stay in the bullpen. I could see that he might have been quietly politicking to get this opportunity. Nobody should fool themselves here, the potential earnings between a guy who's a pretty good reliever and 5th starter could be pretty huge. Especially if he actually is any good and gets traded to a contender. That's probably something that is going to be respected by the players here as well as ones you might be trying to attract. And if he sucks, Cecil can be here in no time.

On the position player side of that long shot coin. I'm fine with Ruiz and McCoy on the team. I think they are both going to get regular chances to show why the entire rest of the league has been right about them for years once Bautista proves he's not going to suddenly bloom into a legit above average everyday player. But who knows, if one of these 3 exceeds expectations that would be a very good thing. We just have to hope that Cito realizes when one of the is showing there is no hope and moves onto the next one.

Finally, congratulations to Adam Lind on his brand new contract. It's amazing, the MLB contract. Both sides can be screwing each other and making out like bandits at the same time. I think this is positive backup to this story from tao of stieb. If the CEO was actually telling the players all this stuff, well then I have to think Rogers would have to be awfully cynical for it not to be true. The only thing is until proven otherwise, I really do believe that Rogers just is that cynical. Let's just say the scale is momentarily tipped the other way. But that's got as much to do with it being the first game of the regular season as anything else.

Some stuff to follow on Lind and Hill that I've been working on for a looong while.

Isn't that Addie guy supposed to be reporting somewhere about now? did he get lost in the Bermuda triangle?

At this point let me also state dissapointment that the Jays do not have a former Giant Bocock on the roster this season. I was looking forward to that.

100 losses and #3 in the draft here we come!

Were there games the last couple of days?

I don't know, looking things over seems like they lost both, not surprising as the regulars on the other teams are going to play more and more.

Eveland and Rzep both pitched ok from what i see the last 2 days.

Apparently Overbay has been declared the starter for the beginning of the season, and that means Ruiz is mostly going to have to sit. I don't think I have a big problem with this to start the season. It's going to be a lot more beneficial in the long term if Bautista actually turns out to be a viable everyday MLB player somehow, and he's earned at least a month of the regular season to prove it's possible. if he sucks as bad as i think i will then move snider to right and lind to left and give ruiz a shot at dh, or mix it up any other way. ditto for olerud, give him as much chance as possible to make himself a tradeable commodity.

The problem is if Cito thinks that Bautista batting 260 with a 310OBP is ok at the end of April, Bautista will get to stay as the everyday leadoff man and banish Ruiz to the bench. Better hope Ryan Howard twists his ankle or something.

In Praise of Jose Bautista - Sort Of - Or maybe: Just Screw It!

I was thinking about writing a post fleshing out more my feelings about how bad I thought it was that Travis Snider isn't going to be the starting right fielder, and instead Cito says it's going to be Jose Bautista out there and batting leadoff. Originally I thought this was pretty stupid, but then in thinking about a post to write about how stupid it was I started thinking about it and, well, maybe it's not that simple. So here are the multiple ways it seems you can approach this, some a little more sympathetic to what might be the Jays thinking, some not so.

1. Maybe this is just some final mind games with Travis, and he's going to get a shot out in right to start or eventually in spring if he's hitting up a storm, and it really will be Travis in right and Lind in left most of the time and let's see how it goes. The problem with this thinking is:

2. If you can't find a place for Bautista then who is going to lead off? I mean as much as I might like to say, "who cares the team sucks, they are going to lose 100 games what does it matter if they have a leadoff hitter or not", Cito actually has to manage the team, a team full of guys who probably aren't going to be happy to loose 100 games, even if it is in their best long term interest. Do I really know that Travis even is going to be happy getting 600AB on a miserable team where guys are grumbling about they can't get anybody on base. Will Hill, will Lind? As much as I don't care about these things and discount them, even I can't say they don't exist at all. At least this looks like it's a plan that may not completely suck to the team, rather than just capitulation before you even start.

3. If you told me that Scutaro was going to have the kind of success leading off that he did last season, I would have told you you were crazy. Maybe it was just a fluke. Or maybe Cito really did work some magic and he thinks he can do it again. That really is the X-factor that I hadn't thought of before I started considering this, I wonder if anybody else has (I haven't noticed at bluejays.com or djf)? And if he really can turn Bautista into an above average MLB offensive force for the next 4 or 5 season (800+ OPS, 15-20HR 370OBP) that should certainly make people look differently at his legacy. You don't want that guy batting leadoff and playing  rf or even cf?

4. Or maybe just screw it! My first thought was the best one. Bautista will never be anything but a utility guy with some pop. Bat Gonzalez at lead off, bat Encarnacion there for all I care. Just put Snider in rf and Lind in lf and let them prove they can't play. That is what's most important.

In the end this is more complex than I thought, and it makes me a little more sympathetic to the position Cito is in, and a little more upset at atos for putting him in this position. Maybe it explains the Gregg signing a little more. I mean as much as everybody maybe upset that Cito is mysteriously here for one more season, he doesn't have to be, and he's actually putting himself in a pretty lousy no-win situation doing it. He really is taking one for the team in a lot of ways. Why shouldn't he do it the way he see's best.