Worst. Month. Evah. Contd

Well almost to the end and at 6-10 it's not as bad as I expected, but again there is no real reason to believe that they will actually win more than 1 or 2 games more this month.

Cecil and Rzep to Sit

According to the Blue Jays site Brett Cecil and the Rzep have reached their inning limit for the year and will sit after their next starts. I have to applaud this, as i believe it's not a good idea for pitchers to make big jumps in their innings from one season to the next. I believe the first time I saw this talked about was in a Tom Verducci article that I can't find, so I'll just link to his archive. I also like his Schilling Theory (which I will write more about at some point), and I think he's one of the only useful Sportswriters out there, though of course I haven't really read him in months.

Apparently David Purcey is going to get another shot. As terrible a year as Wells has had this season, I think Purcey was actually the biggest let down of the season. If he could have been any where near as good as his talent says he should be, the pitching staff would have been a lot more stable and who knows what could have happened. Hopefully he can start to work it out and become the player he should.

Draft Fiasco 2009

So the Jays failed to sign 3 of their top 4 picks in the 2009 draft. I don't know exactly what to make of this, I don't really think it's much of a disaster as they get 3 compensation picks in next years draft. While clearly this is screwed up, I hesitate to add colossal to that in any way. I'm not saying "you just don't understand JP's genius long term plan", or concluding that this is final proof positive that the Rogers higher-ups have decided to strip the team of all money. I think they screwed up in their first attempt at aggressively going after players that were a stretch, and in the big picture nobody really knows how this ends up playing out given they can pick these 3 same guys or better again next year.

This should and will probably be the subject of a longer post, but we are talking about the MLB Amateur Draft here. If you have any rational idea at all about the history of picking players, you know in your heart that there's a very good chance none of these 3 guys they didn't sign will even make it to the majors, ever, let alone make any kind of impact. Hell I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of them didn't even get picked next year.

I could line up the evidence for the pointlessness of draft analysis all day, but let's save that. Let it just be noted that Mike Piazza got picked as the very last pick of the Dodgers in the 1988 draft. 1390 overall. As a favor. And he played college ball. If this is not proof that the draft is a colossal crap shoot that we should all just ignore, I do not know what is.

The way forward

One week after the dissapointment of lettin Rios go for nothing (and
no I am not changing my opinion) the head has cleared and I think
there actually are some things that can be done to assemble a
competitive team around Halladay next season. These things will of
course require that Rogers be willing to spend some/all/more than the
money saved by gettin rid of Rolen and Rios.

Pitching

Of primary importance they need some veteran, proven and healthy
starters, at least 1 and preferably 2. Trying to build some kind of
monster offence is going to be pointless for a number of reasons (the
players just aren't out there to acquire, pitching is more important
anyways), so better to build up the starters. There are going to be a
number of good #2 and 3 types available this offseason (Washburn,
Lackey, Marquis, Harden even might be a good risk if cheap) so get 2
with the money. Halladay + 2FA, Romero and Marcum would make a pretty
awesome starting rotation, and would make pitchers like Cecil, Rzep
Litsch etc.. pretty good depth/bullpen/trade bait for other parts that
are required. And after Halladay goes they they can be the needed
veterans behind the new ace Romero for a couple of more seasons.

The relievers just need to be sorted out. A closer is the #1 priority
whether coming from what is already with the team or added from
outside, they need to leave spring training next season with the
unquestionable man in that positiion. Hopefully when that is done the
rest of the mess sorts itself out and with a solid starting starting 5
things don't fall apart like this year.

Offence/Defence

I am a firm believer that pitching is a lot more important than
offence to build a winning team, but that said a team needs at least a
competent offence, which right now the Jays are not. The best way the
Jays can fix this problem is get a good bat into the DH spot and get
Lind into LF. Johnny Damon is the way to go here in my opinion. He can
hit in any of the top 3 lineup positions, he's very productive and
he's an excellent veteran presence who's worth adding to the team for
a number of seasons. He won't be cheap 10-12+mil per year, probably 3
years, but he would be a hell of a signal to send that the Jays are
serious.

Next up is re-sign Scutaro if the money is reasonable. He's excellent
at SS, and even if he falls off offensivley next season its hard to
see it being so far that he can't make be a legit threat as a #7, 8 or
hitter earning a reasonable salary. He had a ridiculous start to the
season but has kept up a good OBP and shown some real patience and
ability to get and hit deep in the count, I can't see how that all
just goes away completely in one season.

That done the Jays have a pretty reasonable 1-6 lineup in some
combination with Wells in the 6 if he doesn't regress even further.
There are other possible free agents of course. Chone Figgins or Dye
if his option isn't picked up, but not a whole lot that is going to
have the guaranteed impact of Damon.

Oh and Lind should stay batting 3rd and Hill move to cleanup until one
of them proves this season is a fluke, or a hitter who obviously
changes the equation is acquired.

Next up is right field. I don't know here. Can Snyder or Lind play RF?
Get a better 3B (Figgins?) and try Encarnacion in RF? Maybe trade for
one with the young/extra starters? Anyways keeping this problem in the
7-9 hitters makes it somewhat easier to solve..

What about Snyder? If he can play RF capably great! If he can earn his
way to the top 5 in the lineup awsome! But if they are going to rely
on him as a key part of their plans next year and as a solution to any
of their problems, then I don't think they are being serious. He is
still to unproven and young. He could suck next season and still have
a great career (see Lind).

A catcher will still need to be found, but capable #9 hitting catchers
are cheap and plentiful.

So would the Jays make moves like these? Who knows? Its going to take
these kinds of moves, which mean spending more next season than they
did at the start of this season. But they keep claiming they can spend
the money. These are the kinds of moves I think it will take.

Update:

Let's add Figgins to this list of dream players while we are at it, and he can be added into the mix at 3b, rf, and even 1b and bat leadoff. How about a lineup of this:

1. Figgins 3b
2. Scutaro ss
3. Damon dh
4. Hill ss
5. Lind lf
6. Overbay 1b
7. Wells cf
8. Snyder/Encarnacion rf
9. Catcher

A dream I know but what the hell.

Randy Ruiz is the Bright Shining Future of the Toronto Blue Jays

Randy Ruiz, 31, owner of 68 major league plate appearances and 4651 minor league plate appearances (ok i'll give you the 909 career OPS) is your newest Toronto Blue Jay.

Maybe this guy is going to turn into the next Pena/Ortiz, although they actually played in the Majors significantly before turning 30. Maybe the 9 previous organizations that had him really have missed something (again I'll grant that a 713 OPS is the lowest he ever had in any year, and that was in 22 games). Maybe there will be a Roy Hobbes in our lifetime.

But still, we couldn't have waited until September for this miracle to be revealed? It doesn't make more sense to let Travis Snyder get 3 more weeks of Major League AB's, against the best teams in the American League this season? We wouldn't want him to rack up any more service time of course!

Randy Ruiz vs. Travis Snyder...Decisions Decisions

So on the broadcast tonight they are talking about whether or not Randy Ruiz or Travis Snyder is going to be promoted to replace Rios. I'm very happy for Randy to be having such a great year in his 7000 minor league season, but I'm pretty sure that Snyder is the future of this team, maybe he should start working on MLB pitching. I think with the OPS of 10,000 he has going in AAA right now there isn't a lot left to prove.

Rios gone for nothing

Well they just let him go...I got nothing. This just looks like a salary dump pure and simple to me. Is there a path to building some kind of contender next year? I suppose. But there is going to have to be a lot of work done to prove to me that they are serious about it.

Default setting on my opinion now is Halladay will be traded in the offseason along with anybody else expensive they can get rid of, Riccardi is gone and there will be yet another "re-building".

That's something positive to hope for, if they dump everybody but Halladay and try and sell the team as some kind of contender then that would just be pointless beyond belief.