Are Lind and Hill for Real? Pt 1.

Here's some thinking on Lind and Hill that I have been working on for months


Both of theses guys had breakout seasons in 2009, proving themselves to be capable of top offensive output. But will they do it again? That has to be the $100mil question because it's the kind of money they'll be earning if they keep this up. The Jays should thank their lucky stars neither is up for arbitration or FA this off season, because players having a career year in their mid 20's never to repeat the feat are a terrifying proposition (see Hinske, E. and Rios, A., let alone Beltre, A.)

I'm not sure what the popular opinion on this issue is, but my impression was that people seemed to think Hill was more likely the fluke than Lind, I'm not sure I would agree. If anything I think Hill is going to use this season to really take off to a Hall of Fame type career. With Lind I think that he is going to be a very good player that touches this level a couple more times, and probably stays close to it over his career, but I don't think you can expect even another leap from here. 

To come to my conclusion I went back and did my research with players that i thought were similar to Hill and Lind, and drilled down into their break out seasons.

For purposes of keeping posts from being gigantic, I'll do Hill in this one. Here's a comparison page at baseball-reference.com.

From the first time I saw Hill in 2005, I thought: "this guy is either going to be Jeff Kent maybe without the power or Paul Molitor without the speed." I'm pretty sure now he's going to be Jeff Kent with the power.

Both of them got rushed to the big leagues after 3 seasons in the minors at 23 due to injuries at the MLB level, and if you compare those stats they come out about the same. Kent showed more power, though Hill had a better OPS by 100 points. Kent never saw AAA, while Hill was only there for 38 games. 

Hill has completed his 5th season, and though Kent never played more than 140 games in his first 5 their totals are pretty close because Kent never had the lost season that Hill did due to his concussion in 2008. That's as far as you can directly compare them as of course, Hill has only played those first 5 season. In the years after that 5th season Kent kept moving around and didn't really break out like Hill did this season until he played 150+ games for SF and hit 29HR's, he still only posted a .789OPS. The next season he really hit his prime and his OPS didn't go below 860 until he turned 40 in his final season and posted a 745 in 2008. 

Can Hill do what Kent did. I think so. If you look at them historically the had developed on pretty similar paths to this point with the main differences being Hill playing more regularly, Kent's power surge not coming so much out of left field and Hill having his first truly huge season at a younger age (which might be a function of Kent never playing as much as Hill has, I can't remember why that was). They both had the same main problem in their offense at this stage, OBP, and if Kent could overcome it there is no reason to believe Hill won't or can't.


What I think is important to remember about Hill in the regard is that from here he could just take off and have an incredible career. The other likely outcome is that his power could dip again and some of the HR's could go back to being 2B's, but if his OBP does rise, that will still be one hell of a player.