Are Lind and Hill for Real? Pt 2.

Guessing where Adam Lind may go from here is a lot more confusing to me than what the future holds for Hill. If you look at his stats in college and the minors you could definitely see there was a lot to be optimistic about. His struggles in his first 3 part seasons showed promise and frustration, the disaster his first trip up in 2008 turned into was scary.

But still the year he had in 2009 was pretty remarkable for a breakout season by a player with a little over  a seasons experience over 3 years. He was just so damned consistent, always producing something the whole way through the season. He had one month with an OPS below 800, but still had 18RBI. One month of an OBP below 300, but again drove in 18 and had a SLG of 581. Yes he did have a great last month of the season when the team faced a lot of lousy opposition, but given that he had such a consistent year before that, why would it be disappointing to get better in those situations, he SHOULD get better. If he had put up huge numbers through april and may, and then slumped away the summer only to pick it up in september I would worry about the future. But that isn't what happened at all.

It's hard to want to be as positive about a player like Lind as you think you could be. Could he really be as good as McGriff or Delgado? The main problem here is how do you get past the fact that he was a 3rd round draft pick and has always been questioned as to what he could actually become. I mean JP sucked at the draft didn't he? I don't want to turn this into a rant on these subjects, so I won't. But I think that's a big part of the doubt around Lind. Just how good can the guy be? Delgado-McGriff-Olerud-Green good? 3 of those 4 players left pretty early in their career (and Delgado eventually left too) to continue their greatness other places. Am I worried that Lind may do that too? Given the new contract he just signed the chance are reduced.

It's hard to imagine him being consistently as good or better than 2009. In his first full season he posted a 932OPS, 15th best in MLB right between Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Howard. He could lose 100pts off that and still have a really good season. So I don't think it's unreasonable to believe in an 850-950OPS from him every year. Probably we are looking here more at a Justin Morneau than Ryan Howard. One year he'll probably go over 1000 and make a run at an MVP (Delgado Olerud and McGriff did it 5 times between them, Green topped out at 972).

So in my opinion yes Lind is for real. 2009 was a consistent year for him in that he produced all season long, and what he produced was well in line with his minor league career. Given that new contract, I think the Jays agree too. And if he does spend seasons dipping into the 750OPS range, at least it's not killer money, like somebody else's long term contract.