Why the Jays will be better by 2011

There is a lot of work for atos and his boys to do, no question. You cannot deny that the minor league system, even after last weeks 3 top prospect infusion, is weak. But the Jays have 2 strengths that can allow them to rebound quickly. 1) They do have a lot of decent pitching prospects. 2) The ownership has shown, and continues to show, a willingness to spend enough money to avoid being embarrassing for extended periods.


First the pitching, and especially the starting pitching. Here's a sort of ranked list of potential starters the Jays currently have, who could make it to the Majors in 2011:


Romero
Cecil
Rzep
Marcum
Drabek
Update: Brandon Morrow
Ray
Mills
Stewart
Jenkins
Perez 
Litsch
Purcey
McGowan

Now let's be realistic here, of these 13 guys really only McGowan, Drabek and Jenkins may have any chance at being an ace, and McGowan may never pitch again. Purcey may have already used up his last chance, and Marcum and Litsch are damaged goods. Even then, you'd have have to be pretty pessimistic to believe they won't find at least 3 starting pitchers, in all that. Basically they have to be right about 2 and get lucky on 1 of 13. And be wrong or unlucky about 10.

That's where the money comes in. Assuming Rogers is going to be willing to spend at least $80-100mil per year again for a couple of years, they will be able to get a #1 or 2 type pitcher to complement what they develop in house. If a miracle happens and they can actually can find 4 or 5 good starters from that list, well then even better.

Again, they are going to be bad in 2010, but hopefully in that they'll be giving lots of opportunity to as many of these guys as possible to find those starting pitchers.