Carlos Delgado

In his last couple of seasons I had always hoped that Fred McGriff would be able to come back to the Jays and make that final push to 500HR. Fred never came back and he never made 500, finishing 7 short at 493 in Tampa.

That situation makes me think about Delgado, and having him return here to finish out his career in a Jays uniform and get that 500th HR in Toronto. But really where does he fit? Theoretically the Jays may already have problems with finding enough at bats for Lind, Snider and Overbay if you have to add in Ruiz, Dopirak and maybe even Wallace and some others into the picture.

It might make a nice story next year to distract the fans in a lousy year, but we don't need distraction. We need as  many at bats as possible for the guys who are going to be Jays in 2011 and beyond. No matter how bad the team is.

Who knows maybe somehow he will fit-in in 2011. Maybe he'll be a big part of a really good team. That would actually be better than being a distraction, even if we miss that 500th HR.

Karma and the Indianapolis Colts

There is no team I want to see win the Superbowl more every year than the Colts. I don't know if it would be fair to say that they are my favorite team, but I do think they are my favorite team to watch (with the Cardinals being a close second) whether they win or loose. I don't really know how to assess the statistical reality, but I do know that every year that the Colts give up on the last couple of games in a season, it feels like Karma when they lose in the playoffs. That feeling was strong after they screwed the Browns in 07 by losing to the Titans without the starters playing the whole game. And it feels really strong now after they gave up on a chance at a perfect season on sunday.

I don't know whether being safe and protecting and resting your starters vs keeping the momentum going is the right choice. I just know I won't feel bad for them if they loose in the playoffs.

So what's next?

Happy Holidays one and all. I hope you get everything you want for Christmas, as long as everybody involved consents!

After the Morrow deal what could be next for atos to do in this productive off season. He's already added one more potential starting pitcher for 2010 to the staff, and he did it without trading Overbay, so I'm a little stumped. What's he going to trade Overbay for now? More starting pitching? A real closer? Let's guess an outfield prospect instead, although I haven't got a clue who that would be, and I'm guessing somebody else and cash would have to go along. Either way my sneaking suspicion is that except for minor tweaks atos is done until spring training and Overbay starts the season with Jays so they can see if he's finally going to put it together and can maybe draw a serious deal closer to the trade deadline, rather than one where the Jays have to sweeten the pot.

How about some Christmas wishes?

1) Totally unrealistic wish - Morrow proves to be the real deal, McGowan comes back in the spring, Marcum is back to 2008 and healthy for the whole 2010, Romero get's better and somebody from the other near dozen possibilities can be a 5th starting pitcher.

2) More realistic wish - 2 of the above happen.

3) Another totally unrealistic wish - Hill and Lind have the same or better years, Snider has the kind of year they had, and Encarnacion shows he belongs.

4) More realistic wish - Hill and Lind don't fall off a cliff, Snider gets 400+AB and comes close to an 800OPS.

5) A really unrealistic wish - atos swoops out of nowhere and signs Bay to a 5 year deal

Merry Christmas!!!

What's on the Blue Jay's Homepage Today?

So what interesting stuff can we find at propaganda central today?

Hmmm, looks like atos and accardo have kissed and made up and atos has conveyed the message that no, Cito really isn't in charge next season (interestingly i don't think they mention the managers name once in the whole article). I would guess this feeling that the team could go forward with accardo probably made it a little easier to trade away league.

I wonder what's going to happen when the rest of the team finds out about Cito?

Mail Bag! I don't usually bother to look at this at all, but the headline "Who will be Opening Day Starter" just  drew me in. Fascinatingly Bastian did not answer "who in the hell in their mom's basement would actually care". Which reminded me why I never click on this thing. I suppose this is a good feature to draw in the 12 year olds, but as much as I'd like to believe these questions are asked by 12 year olds, I fear they are not. Bastian actually puts together a respectful answer. I would roll out the snark:

"The opening day starter doesn't matter on a good team, it's an invented media issue we came up with because spring training is boring. You did know that they play 162 games in a season right? You need to learn when your being manipulated before you venture into the outside world. When your team is going to lose 100 games, it matters less than who the mascot is. Please don't buy any bridges. Also don't break this out as a conversation topic when talking to a girl, unless you've already made it to third base, because you'll never get further. Or back to first."

I could get used to doing this.

Roy Halladay took out an ad?

Given that i would rather try and learn chinese from the tags in my clothing than read the Sun, I had no idea, so h/t to the drunk jays fans.

I agree with everything they wrote here by the way.

Taking a closer look at the Morrow Trade

I've had some more time to look at the stats and I think you have to be fairly impressed with Morrow. Obviously dude is not considered anywhere a sure thing by Seattle given his up and down performance and injury problems over his first 3 part seasons. But the 15 starts he has made show promise, and he was very good pretty much everywhere in the minors, so it's not a case of "finally showing his talent at the major league level". Clearly the Jays are going to give him the ball every 5 days next season until he hurts himself or proves he can't be a starter because he ain't got it or he can't stay healthy. After that he has shown he has potential as a reliever, about as good as League was, if not better (he actually has more career saves than League, not that that really means anything).

The only way this ends up looking bad is if he can't stay healthy and never shows anything, and Chavez turns into a really good player. Because it's not like the farm system is crawling with top outfield prospects right now. If it goes well Morrow replaces McGowan, who I really think will never pitch again.

Throw in the "under control longer than League", "younger than League", "frustration with League's potential" stuff and this is a pretty good trade.

Crazy closer idea

How about try David Purcey?

Dude has 1 relief appearance in his pro career, but let's be honest, looking at his 6 year pro career you have to wonder how he maybe hasn't had more. Yeah there's tons of talent there, but maybe it's time to start focusing on 1 or 2 pitches and 1 inning. Maybe he could actually focus on that, because he certainly has trouble with the starting.

Minor league stats
Major league stats

6 seasons of minor league ball and he's gotten his whip below 1.3 twice, and one of those seasons was over a total of 12 innings.

This has probably been suggested many time before and being ignorant I have never noticed, but still I would like to throw it out there.

Morrow for League + Chavez

So I wake up this morning and the Jays have traded Brandon League and a prospect to the Mariners for Brandon Morrow. I suppose we need to check if the Jays have any players in the minors who have either the first name Brandon or the last name of League or Morrow to see if there will be any "humour" injected in this thing. Apparently not, the prospect appears to be Yohermyn Chavez

Anyways you have to assume that the Mariners see League as usable piece right now and that Chavez has some potential (Last 2 years in A ball, last year very good). Both the Brandon's certainly could benefit from a change of scenery. Beyond their metrosexual first names, they also share a "well that's been fairly disappointing" sort of aura. I'm going to say the Jays come out slightly ahead, in that if Morrow can't make it as a starter, he can still be tried as a reliever. League is kind of running out of opportunities to make himself more than a journeyman of the "million dollar arm ten cent brain" variety. Chavez may be the big upside player in all this, but again you always say thay in this kind of trade.

Anyways, you can make that list I just did 14 players long now.

Why the Jays will be better by 2011

There is a lot of work for atos and his boys to do, no question. You cannot deny that the minor league system, even after last weeks 3 top prospect infusion, is weak. But the Jays have 2 strengths that can allow them to rebound quickly. 1) They do have a lot of decent pitching prospects. 2) The ownership has shown, and continues to show, a willingness to spend enough money to avoid being embarrassing for extended periods.


First the pitching, and especially the starting pitching. Here's a sort of ranked list of potential starters the Jays currently have, who could make it to the Majors in 2011:


Romero
Cecil
Rzep
Marcum
Drabek
Update: Brandon Morrow
Ray
Mills
Stewart
Jenkins
Perez 
Litsch
Purcey
McGowan

Now let's be realistic here, of these 13 guys really only McGowan, Drabek and Jenkins may have any chance at being an ace, and McGowan may never pitch again. Purcey may have already used up his last chance, and Marcum and Litsch are damaged goods. Even then, you'd have have to be pretty pessimistic to believe they won't find at least 3 starting pitchers, in all that. Basically they have to be right about 2 and get lucky on 1 of 13. And be wrong or unlucky about 10.

That's where the money comes in. Assuming Rogers is going to be willing to spend at least $80-100mil per year again for a couple of years, they will be able to get a #1 or 2 type pitcher to complement what they develop in house. If a miracle happens and they can actually can find 4 or 5 good starters from that list, well then even better.

Again, they are going to be bad in 2010, but hopefully in that they'll be giving lots of opportunity to as many of these guys as possible to find those starting pitchers.

On that $6mil

Reading through the excellent djf wrap-up of the trade, I realized I had forgotten to make any comment about the transfer of funds from the Jays to Phillies. (I would also like to point out that their summary came out suspiciously after mine, hmmmm). I also hadn't realized that there is some kind of uproar over this, though of course there would be.

Djf handles the explanation of the situation pretty well, but I think they fail to make it crystal clear. $6mil was the cost of getting Drabek included rather than some guy who posts a 7ERA in 3 mlb starts and then disappears into a life as a High School gym teacher. The media may have reported it as the Jays helping the Phillies pay Roy's 2010 salary, but that's because you're not allowed to buy other teams players. Be thankful Rogers, whatever they are, are not as bad as the owners of the Twins or Indians.

Clear?

Things I would like to see

Nick Johnson as the everyday DH of the New York Yankees.

Somehow I don't think this has Boras and Damon shaking in their boots.

My one and only thought on Tiger Woods

It's golf, so really I care even less about it than soccer, but one thing really jumps out at me.

None of these things seem particularly "courageous"

1) Cheating on your wife with many women behind her back

2) Taking the ball home and sulking because you don't like the fact that people found about 1)

3) Letting your stick of a sweedish wife beat you up with a golf club

4) Fleeing from your stick of a sweedish wife at all, let alone in a vehicle, because she has a golf club and your worried about more of a beating

Tiger will be back someday, and when some idiot media member praises his "courage" for hitting a little white ball, and I accidentally have to hear it, I will be physically sick.

Dust Settles, Time to Peer into the Future and Get Things Wrong

So the press conferences are done and the Roy Halladay era is over. All in all I am thankful that he is gone to another league for a couple of years at least, and next year won't be some kind of "we suck but here's Roy until we trade him" farewell tour.

So obviously there is a lot to do, to put it mildly, and that must mean you the reader want me to predict what I think will happen next so I can be wrong! So here goes, mixed in with some advice to the Management:

First off, this team will suck next year - 100 losses suck - just get over it now. Anybody suggesting that any move be made to make the team better next year that might create a negative impact in future years needs to be smacked in the back of the head.

1) The only mildly interesting things I got out of the djf's excellent summary of yesterdays press conference (what you thought i would actually watch that thing myself? ahahahaha!) was that they see Wallace as a 1b no question, and that he will start at AAA, Drabek at AA and the musketeer will start in Dunedin. I guess that would be open to change if Drabek and Wallace wow in spring training, the musketeer is years away. I can't see Drabek making it to the majors before next September unless he is ridiculous. Why start his clock? I think Wallace actually has a good chance of making the team out of spring training, if they think there is no chance he can be a 3b and he can hit major leaguers in the spring, what's the point of keeping him back?

2) I think this means that Edwin Encarnacion probably sticks around for at least another year and they really see whether or not he can play 3B, stay healthy and post an +800OPS. I think the guy really has some potential and could be pretty good over the next couple of years while he is in his "prime". I think he could actually make a decent #2 hitter in a power/OBP/no speed offence, which seems to be what the Jays are building. It would be good if they can find a 3B for the next couple of years, because the only thing worse than trying to find a good ss is trying to find a good ss and 3B at the same time.

3) I think the Jays are trying to move Overbay, but I don't think they will do it just to do it. If he can pick it up next season and get back to what he was before the hand injury he could make for a very nice trade deadline deal, especially as he is coming to the end of his cheap deal. I can't see getting much for him right now, especially for just him.

4) I think they should keep all their young pitching unless something special can be gained by including some of it in an Overbay trade. Otherwise keep all those guys and give Marcum and Romero a full season and everybody else as close to 20 starts as you can, even Purcey and Mills. By everybody I mean Litsch (if he get's back), Cecil, Rzep, Ray and the other 2. Richmond I'm not so sure about. I honestly doubt McGowan is ever going to pitch again, sad but true.

Get these guys as much experience as you can and gather as much information as you so can to try and make intelligent decisions for 2011.

If they do take a flyer on a cheap free agent starter (Bedard? somebody RH?), then obviously that's going to cut into everybody else's opportunities, but I don't really see that as likely.

5) Trade Accardo. If he is with the team again next year and they jerk him around again, I can't see him staying nice and quiet about it. I don't think they have the option to send him up and down again so if they just never use him in the MLB bullpen it would suck if the only news they generate next year is some kind of incident with him. The chances are probably low but still, it's not the kind of press they need. If they actually plan on letting the guy pitch and show what he's got then fine, but I just don't see that happening for some reason.

6) Find a way to go back on this Cito farewell tour thing. Really, what is the good of letting him be a lame duck for a year even if you know you are going to suck. Unless somebody on the staff is really the new Manager in waiting and will really be running things, can't we just be rid of him? I wouldn't care who the guy was that they were doing this with, I would not publicly ride out a season like this unless my team was a stone cold lock veteran world series contender. I know I usually say I don't care who the manager is, but in this situation the Manager could actually screw up all the things that do matter for a rebuilding team. I mean i'm sure there will be a message from on high to play young players with a future over veterans who suck, but why should that message even need to be sent. I worry, I see no upside to this, only down.

7) Find a shortstop of the future. This should be atos's prime goal until he finds one. There should be no stone left unturned. They should draft like 5 ss's in the draft. If he can find 2 that would be great, because one can then play 3B. Until he has one he should wake up thinking ss and go to sleep dreaming about one.

8) Stop whining about attendance or ratings. Fire anybody who does. You sucked as an organization. You blew the last 5 years by not going for it when the opportunity was there. Whether that was JP or upper management getting in his way or whatever, you blew it and you are responsible for the fact that nobody wants your product. Stop blaming them for your mistakes. If anybody asks anybody then the answer is "we know things will get better when we play better", that is that. If the media wants to make a point of it, which of course they will, then don't get involved and again: "WE KNOW THAT WHEN WE PLAY BETTER THINGS WILL GET BETTER". If you do anything else but this, I will not believe that you are serious about building a contender. I will not believe that atos is anything but a diversionary tactic while you try to make as much profit as possible while spending as little as possible. In short I will not believe that you care at all about the final product on the field.

The Jays are not the padres, nationals, royals or (shudder) pirates. They have talent, and especially pitching talent. And they have ownership that can spend when the time is right. There is no reason the team can't be 500 again in 2011 and a legit contender in 2012-13. Now buck up and don't worry about next year.

More thoughts on the Halladay deal

Don't let the door hit you on the way out

No really I mean it.

It was great, thanks for the help, congratulations on your new deal and your future success, we wish you the best.

Now go away so we can worry about us, because we're pretty sure you're worrying about you.

I know there is crying and gnashing of teeth going on out there but really why. This is frankly best for the Jays. As I have stated before, it doesn't make any sense at all for the Toronto Blue Jays to be guaranteeing $20mil per year to any pitcher in his mid 30's or above, it's just dumb.

Could the Jays have gotten a 3 year extension only (with options) from Halladay? Maybe, if they had actually gotten over the hump in 2007-08 and at least made it to the first round of the playoffs. But they did not, and Roy ran out of patience. This as much as anything should be one more lesson to upper management that when opportunity presents itself you have to grab it, not sit around and hope for the best.

But that's not the situation, and even if it was, any time you want to tie the future of your organization's hopes to any pitcher going into his mid 30's, you are taking a huge risk. Is anybody pointing this out at all? Does anybody realize that by guaranteeing this money to Roy for the next  3-5 years, you are probably making it impossible to retain any other player you develop that is anywhere near that good that can become a free agent in those years?

The Jays got 3 good prospects who look to all have + mlb potential. I would have rather let him walk and gotten 2 picks than taken the risk of singing him till he's 39.

The plot thickens and things get even better

Michael Taylor was sounding pretty awesome, maybe like Frank Thomas with speed or an Alex Rios that could live up to the hype (without so much speed?). But all the chatter is that the atos is going to flip him to the A's for Brett Wallace, who may have even more offensive potential, is a year younger, bats left handed and might be able to play 3b. He has no speed however.

If Wallace really can spend even a couple of years playing average 3b defense, before being moved to 1b or dh or something, and can show the kind of offense in MLB that he has shown in the minors, the Jays are assembling a hell of a middle of the lineup with Hill, Lind, Snider and Wallace. Wallace should get a chance in the majors right out of spring training you would think, especially if they can move Overbay and or Encarnacion.

Which makes me wonder 2 things:

What could you get for a trade of Overbay, Purcey and maybe Encarnacion?

Why not try Encarnacion in RF? He has a hell of an arm by all appearances, and though he is not fast, he isn't a statue either.

Halladay 3 Team Craziness

I'm not going to comment on anything I've heard so far right now about the parts moving around , because who knows until it's for sure. But how do you improve yourself by getting rid of Lee and adding Halladay? Not that I care, it's not the team I cheer for, but it doesn't make sense to me. Both of them on my team makes sense, switching them does not.

Otherwise, out of the division, out of the league - awesome.

Chien-Ming Wang, Hmmmm....

The non-tender deadline has passed and some things have been sorted out. The Jays appear to have a pair of catchers for next season in John Buck and the returning Chavez. They may be contemplating a more 1912 style offense by adding Joey Gathright with a minor league deal, and negotiating a new contract with Jose Bautista. And they intend to continue poking Jeremy Accardo with a sharp stick. So the suckiness takes a little more form.

Here's a thought though. Chien-Ming Wang was non-tendered by the Yankees, as I'm sure everybody must know. Apparently he can't pitch until next April at the earliest, but I haven't read anything that says whether that would be MLB ready or the start of a rehab tour. This situation makes me think of what the Cardinals did with Chris Carpenter, and I wonder why the Jays couldn't do the same thing. It's not like they really need anything out of the guy until 2011. Maybe he can supply some nice warm feelings about the future at the end of 2010. The Jays are going to need a Veteran ace type pitcher from somewhere if they think they are going to compete again.

Maybe it's well known that he is done and will never be anywhere near what he was. Maybe it's well known that he has a very good chance to recover, and he's going to have his pick of suitors at a price he likes. But I think this is something the Jays could really take advantage of just like St. Louis with Carpenter. The guy did win 54 games in 95 starts before he screwed up his foot and hurt his shoulder. Given that they keep saying money is no issue...

The Ultimate in Good News/Bad News

I both love and hate this.

First the good thing Campbell is gone! Normally I don't complain about tv or radio announcers, because I just don't care, really i don't. There is just about no chance you can't find something to dislike about any of them. If God himself was talking to you multiple times a week for hours on end and was telling you only things you agreed with and that you were the most awesomest person ever, in the most pleasing way possible, at some point you would probably get fed up and tell him to shove it. So no, I don't think these guys have the easiest job.

But Campbell was a special case. First of all he didn't seem to understand that he was calling games for TV not radio. I can see what's happening dumbass. Secondly he never got anything right. If you are going to describe something in detail, get the details right. If I can tell it's a lazy fly ball off the bat when i'm watching on tv, or in the upper deck in left field, why can't you? Third, don't try to work in folksy and homey and trite crap until you can master number 1 and 2. I don't care about every players touching personal story if you can't tell the difference between a curve and a change, you don't have the credibility. For all I know EVERY SINGLE THING YOU SAY IS COMING OUT OF YOUR RED HEADED IMAGINATION.

Good riddance.

Now the bad. I think Buck Martinez is a fine broadcaster, I never had a problem with him on Jays or any other team's or network's broadcasts. I actually find him to be quite good. But as far as I know they guy was not in need of a job. Why does this organization have to give everybody a second chance to recapture the glory? It's like the're just coming out and saying: "We know we suck. We know we're going to suck. We have no plans to not suck. Please be distracted by this shiny bauble of past glory while we continue to suck. And when you're tired of that bauble we'll get you another, because we are going to keep sucking."

I used to listen to Buck on satellite radio, and he was good there too. But whenever he would talk about the Jays he seemed very willing to stick it to the people he perceived as being responsible for his failures. I worry that the Jays to some extent are bringing him him to dump as much as possible all over the past management. They seem to like doing that. Again, distraction etc, etc. It would be nice if you had the feeling that they were actually building something shiny and new that they were confident would be successful. This doesn't do that.

A Purists Wet Dream

This is just a rumour, but could you imagine if it was true? Gathright, Gonzalez, McDonald and Batista (if not non-tendered) all potentially in the same lineup. If Wells doesn't improve on 2009 that's 5 lousy hitters, and we don't even know who the everyday catcher will be yet. It would be bunt and steal all the time, because these guys can't do anything else. Gathright and Gonzalez alone at the top of the order makes my head spin.

I don't know what can be expected of Encarnacion, or if he will even be a Jay next season. But if the only 2 hitters who can give an over 800OPS are Hill and Lind next season, the best we can hope for is a lot of "more speed, bunting and stealing" idiots learn their lesson. Speed is all these dolts have. At least the defense should be solid.

h/t drunkjaysfans.com

Update: bluejays.com now has something up about this, so I guess it must be pretty close to happening. Which I guess means Batista will be non-tendered. But still gaghhhh.

Comparing Imaginary Deals

The Winter Meetings end tomorrow I think, and of course the chances of a Halladay deal are just about nil by tomorrow. But that doesn't keep people from imagining things. So let's delve into the delusions of others and see what we think would be best.

Phillies - This would be my favourite, it takes him to another league, where we'll see him once a year or never again if interleague is cancelled. And the possible prospects look the best to me as well. If the Jays can get one of Michael Taylor or Dominic Brown and one of J.A. Happ or Kyle Drabek, that would be pretty awesome. Of course they might have to take back Joe Blanton too, but who cares if you already know you are going to suck next year anyways. And you can probably to trade him for something too.

Angels - This would be a plus because he's going west, but the rumored parts coming back kind of suck. Aybar and Saunders are at least known commodities, the only special part of that pair being Aybar's glove. Obviously I'm missing something with Bourjos, because looking at his stats I don't think I see anything special at all. Switch out Napoli with one of those parts and I'm a lot more interested.

Yankees - I would have thought this was the last place I would want him to go, but if they can get Jesus Montero in a deal, it might be worth seeing Halladay go to NYC for the next 5 years. Add in one of Hughes or Chamberlain, and something else of value and this might be the best return. You just have to minus the fact it's the Yankees from all the upside.

Red Sox - I thought I would put them above the Yankees, but I have a lot of suspicion of anything they would send back. Is Bucholz really any good? Does this Kelley kid really want to be a pitcher (good) or a hitter (not good). What else have they got? No good feelings here, and the fact it's the Red Sox is a minus about as big as the Yankees minus.

I hold out for the Phillies.

Nothing says "We aren't trying at all" like...

Jose Bautista will probably bat leadoff, if he isn't non tendered, according to Cito. Now that's what I call planning!

I can only assume that Cito gave this up in response to a question, and didn't just offer it on his own. I guess that's a better answer than "who gives a crap", but it's not as honest.

So Halladay wants to decide where he's going and when

With all respect to Roy's no trade clause and his loyalty to the team over the years. Roy and his representation can take this and this as far as I'm concerned and shove it deep. They are looking out for his best interests, the Jays need to look out for theirs.

The idea that a team other than a serious contender is going to be taking a serious shot at him is pretty ridiculous. The idea that Roy gets to decide to pick which one based on where he likes to go to Spring Training is silly. The fact that these stories show up on the Jays website makes me nervous that they are just piling up the excuses in advance for why they ended up trading him to the Yankees for not very much, so everybody already understands he controlled where he was going, and Joba Chamberlain and some 2B that never makes it above AA was all they could get.

The whole trade me before Spring Training or else ultimatum is obviously a crock. What the agent hopes to gain by making a pronouncement like that who knows. Maybe it's good for his office politics or Roy and some of his other clients think he's not tough enough, but it's just bizarre.

In one of these stories it would be nice to see somebody say (maybe Beeston if atos can't) "we appreciate everything Roy has done and know that he has a no trade clause, we gave him the contract, but we are going to look for the best deal for us, at the best time for us. If that doesn't make Roy ecstatic then he can shop his wares after 2010. This isn't the Toronto Roy Halladay's." When does this management team think that it's going to be a good idea to start saying they care about everybody who isn't Roy Halladay?

Why trade Halladay for only prospects

I have been reading on the Jays website that money is no object and they aren't rebuilding. While no schedule is given for when the team will be competitive, sooner rather than later is what seems to be implied. To me anyways, your mileage may vary.

If that is the case, are the Jays considering Halladay deals for youngish or not so youngish star players? The Red Sox want him? Well send along Pedroia, Papplebon, Youkilis or Martinez with some prospects. Yankees? How about Cano and Chamberlain/Hughes and some prospects. Ooohhh, what about Teixeira? Phillies? Send back Cole Hamels.

Why shouldn't the Jays get back somebody guaranteed to help right away in this trade? Why shouldn't this trade really make the team on the other side hurt? One thing for sure getting a star player back that is making or going to be making a lot of money (and paying it) is going to go along way to making me believe they are serious about this.

Stupid thoeries of baseball purists to be put to the test, Continued

Well if one shortstop who can't hit but "saves a run a game" with his glove is good, then 2 must be great! I guess that's what we have to take from this. Question is how are you going to get them both on the field at the same time to save all those runs they aren't producing with their bats?

Actually this does make some pretty good sense I think. As bad as Gonzalez is as a hitter, he's quite a bit better than McDonald. The best OPS McDonald ever posted in a "full" season was 2005, .651 in 166 AB. His "most productive" season was 2007 when he posted .612 while somehow getting 327 AB. Gonzalez at least is a pretty good bet to have a near 700OPS season, and posted 793 in 2007.

He'll probably be the leadoff hitter for the Jays, who the hell else have they got? That just got me thinking about John McDonald as the everyday leadoff hitter for 162 games. Cold shivers.

He'll probably also get traded to a contender looking for a SS, maybe even Boston again! Another reason why this kind of makes sense. Then McDonald can be the everyday SS, as his fans demand, and pile up the strikeouts.

Stupid thoeries of baseball purists to be put to the test

I don't assume this would make it to the Jays website if it wasn't assured to happen. So I guess we might get to see how bad offense an with McDonald, Ruiz and Dopirak getting 1500+AB could be. Yes it's possible the other 2 could surprise and be perfectly ok, or even better, but McDonald getting 500+AB in a season could be epic.

All things being equal, trade him out of the division

Roy Halladay of course. Not that there is very much of interest yet on the trading Roy front, just a lot of people imagining things between writers, bloggers and their "sources". But the latest from these people in the "know" is that Boston is going to make a serious push, and if that is true, can the Yankees be far behind?

Now I know that this opinion is not exactly trend setting, but I think it's pretty valid. If the Jays actually plan on being competitive in 2011 or 2012, they don't need to make their main competition any stronger in those years. So unless you think one of those 2 teams is going to cripple themselves with the trade (how likely is that?), and you think you can get close to equal value from somebody outside the division, hold out.

If you can trade him somewhere that the Jays are never likely to face him again, even better. Because I really don't wan't this as a topic every time the Jays roll into his town or him into Toronto. Is it ok to pray for a trade to the NL followed shortly by th end of inter league play?

I assume all this is obvious to the people that matter. If the Jays do end up trading Halladay in the division, I'm going to put that in the "don't plan on competing any time soon" evidence pile.

Funny because it's true

I hate stereotypes as much as the next guy, but this is just too good to be true.

Don't know what to make of this

I read this whole thing yesterday and I don't get it, I'm scratching my head after just the first 2 paragraphs.

If the Blue Jays were one or two pieces away from immediately being a contender for the World Series, rookie general manager Alex Anthopoulos would strongly consider being a major player in the free-agent marketplace.

Huh? They were arguably only "one or two pieces away from immediately being a contender" last offseason (and 2007 and 2008), why didn't they do anything then? And if that's true why are we supposed to believe that they will do those last one or two moves in the future?

The reality for Toronto, coming off a disappointing fourth-place finish in the American League East...

Really, it was disappointing? I mean who exactly thought they were going to do better than 4th place before the season started? I bet if you go back and look at the pre-season predictions 4th place and 75 wins was probably about the best anybody expected. Maybe the hot start led to some increased expectations, but anybody who wasn't a moron should have known that once the pitching injuries started and Janssen didn't show anything, even .500 was going to be a huge stretch. If they had done better than they did wouldn't that have been a huge surprise of a JP Riccardi saving season? Before last season Romero was still the worst draft pick in the history of baseball.

After that it just gets more confusing, and the atos quotes, as usual, just don't clarify anything.

Basically I agree with most of what is said here about the rumored ticket price increases in theory. But I also agree here that it looks really bad. I can understand that the current Jays management wants to push as much blame onto the recently departed, and make you look to the future. But I think the message needs to be clearer. If you're message is going to be constantly repeating "We'll be better in the future, Promise. Pay more for some tickets now", great. But if you are going to actually say more than that it should make some sense to people who have a memory.

h/t drunkjaysfans

Why not just let them use their hands?

I really don't like soccer, let's get that straight. Clearly soccer players are great athletes who can do some pretty amazing things, they just happen to play a lousy game in which you hardly ever get to see any of those amazing things. Instead you pointlessly watch them chase the ball around a giant field, not scoring on the huge net wondering what the hell is going on. Why is that offside? Why do they keep going backwards? Don't they want to score?

Also for some reason soccer trainers have learned that the miracle cure for injuries is spraying water on them. Why trainers in all other sports in the entire world have not learned this is a great mystery.

So anyways there is this great outrage about Ireland losing out on the World Cup because a French player used his hand in the winning play and the official missed it. Apparently this is more than just a player gaining advantage and not getting caught, it's cheating of the highest order and the game needs to be replayed or somebody needs a hand cut off or something.

Being a hater of soccer I usually don't care about these things, but I caught a slow motion replay of the play in question on the news and I have to say that was pretty awesome! A bunch of guys crashing the net, ball comes out of nowhere, player knocks it down with his hand, to his FOOT, passes it to another guy who heads it in! Right in front of the net! Action! Score!

If the guy hadn't cheated I'm guessing the ball would have gone out the end and nothing would have happened. Like normal. How is that better?

5 Easy Ways to Recognize a Contender

I didn't really like yesterdays post about what I think atos needs to do to build a contending team, so let's look at it from another direction. The idea of putting together a plan of do this do that is actually pretty stupid. I mean really you can't see the future, and as an outsider you certainly can't see into the murky abyss of the Jays, let alone the rest of MLB. No matter how great a fan you think you are. What you really need to do is have a goal, and judge if where you are at any given time is close to that goal and can you reasonably see the steps needed to get to the goal.

In this spirit, I give you what the Jays need to have in order to be a serious contender in 2011 (or any year for that matter, I'm just hoping they can be a contender by 2011).

In order of importance.

1. Starting Pitching

This is the prime component of any contender, skimp on this and you're screwing yourself in ways that really can't be made up for in other areas. So you need to have 5 real starters, 2, that are going to give you 200+ innings, 2 150 to 180 and 1 that is going to get through the 5th inning 2/3rds of the time. Then you need 2 guys at least who can sit in the bullpen and the minors and make spot starts that don't require the bullpen to start working in the 3rd inning.

2. Closer and Setup

You need a closer that is going to be able to get 35+ saves without blowing 10. I'm not talking about a perfect season, or 1 or 2 blown saves that were really the defense's fault. But a competent guy that nobody really has anything to complain about even if he isn't the best in the league. The setup guy should be at least good enough that fans are complaining that he should really be the closer.

3. Offense

I actually consider this the 3rd most important component of a team. If you have the first 2 and competent hitters, all 700OPS guys with a couple 800OPS and some decent depth like a real good LH pinch hitter, and you're not giving up on free offense with a lousy DH, then you should be able to contend. When you get into making excuses for a guy with an OPS around 700 batting 3rd and a couple of 600OPS guys or lousy/multiple DH because you're cheap, then that's when you get in trouble.

If you really want to make sure of things, you need at least 5 starters with an 800+OPS, and the the other 4 should be in the 700's. If the top end is higher you can go a little lower on the bottom. And at least one bench player who's a threat. And no more than one everyday platoon.

I don't care about speed, it's overrated and very expensive when attached to an actually good hitter. It's more important to have good base runners, than fast ones. And good base running can be taught.

4. Defense

Needs to be solid, I'm not talking about 9 gold glove winners, but if people laugh when you suggest your ss, 2b, cf, c and 3b should at least be considered, then you don't have solid defense. Basically if you are playing Steve Sax every day good luck.

5. The Bullpen

If you have 1 and 2, then whoever you have in the bullpen is going to be fine, because they won't be used much. Or if you have 2-3 good guys they'll get all the chances and the rest will just mop up, and won't matter at all. What I'm saying is this is the least of your problems, if you have taken care of the most important stuff. And if you have taken care of the most important stuff finding what you need here is fairly easy.

So there you go. Those are the goals you need to reach in order to be a contender. Could you do it with less, possibly. But the farther you are away from these goals, the more luck you need, and luck isn't in your control.

As always, enjoy next years 180k's by Randy Ruiz. Hopefully he does enough next season to make somebody want to trade for him.

So what do I think the Jays should do this offseason?

So you are sitting there thinking "OK Mr. Internet Snark, you think you're so smart, what do YOU think atos should do now that he has his soft, smooth inexperienced girly hands on the rough and leathery reigns of power!"

Buy gloves!

Ha Ha - no really, I worked on that for a long time.

Anyways. I noticed SI.com had their top 50 Free Agents posted, and really there were only 2 names on it that I thought would make any sense. Felipe Lopez and Rich Harden. That's pretty much it, and only if they can be gotten cheap. And I'm probably just throwing Lopez in for fun because he's young. You know what forget it, Rich Harden. That's it. I don't feel like constructing an argument for Lopez.

(As a weird aside when searching Felipe Lopez on Baseball-Reference.com, he is the only one that comes up, I would have thought there were like 200 Felipe Lopez's that played minor and major ball over the years).

If Harden comes cheap then I could see him making some sense. The Jays can offer a low pressure situation to get himself right over the next couple of years, and maybe by the time he's ready to be good, they'll be good and then he can go find some big bucks somewhere else. I think this makes some special sense if Halladay gets traded. I'm not interested in the "Canadian Angle", just the young and cheap angle.

Otherwise if one of the available "proven starting pitchers" gets left without a chair and is basically willing to pay the Jays to pitch with them for a season, go for it.

As far as trades - strip it to the bone baby. I keep Hill, Lind, Snyder, Romero, Marcum, Rzep and Cecil. Anybody not on that list, probably including Rzep and Ceil, if I think I'm getting future value - good bye! No 3B for next season, who cares, I'm going to suck anyways.

Of course the reality isn't you can't just trade everybody for pure prospects. There has to be something put together that looks like it can be developed into some kind of cohesive whole in the off season by the end of 2010, or else you're the Pirates. So it can't be a fire sale. If atos goes more than 2 moves where you can't see the reasonable upside in 2011, I think you have to get nervous.

Max possible value for Halladay whenever you can get it will be fine. I just don't want to see somebody in management try and tell me that they think as long as they have him they can contend, or they are trying to make a serious attempt to re-sign him. Please, I am not stupid.

One thing I don't try and do is trade Wells at any cost. If something workable comes up then great, if not the crazed desire to be rid of him could make you miss other good opportunities to build to something in the future. Just leave him be, who know's maybe he'll put it all back together. The money is gone.

Otherwise, enjoy that 180K season from Randy Ruiz. And Cito playing every "veteran" he can get his hands on for no reason at all. And hope there's a light at the end of the tunnel in September 2010.

Things I would have trouble caring about even if you paid me, and then I would probably have to give back the money

Mike Danton: The Untold Story - Like this couldn't have been on W5 or something.

I'd rather watch Scooby Doo episodes featuring Scrappy with my kids.

Thoughts on the Yankees Winning the World Series

Given that when the game started I was sitting in a Hospital Emergency room finishing up some treatment and by the time Pedro had really blown the game I was pretty much out of it and asleep, I'm not quite sure what happened, and can't make any big comments on that game.

Look the Yankees won, they proved to be the best team this season, they spent by far the most money again so you know, they should.

What bugs me is that when they win, it's like it just wipes away the fact that they haven't won for the past 8 years. Like this championship absolves not only them of the past 8 years of rank failure, but the vast majority of the media that just lazily assumes the Yankees will win every year as well. I mean that's really what's going on here. I know it seems like when the Yankees win and the media goes nuts celebrating it that what the media is saying is, "thank god the Yankees have saved us from having to cover all the heathens and barbarians that aren't them." That's a big part of it of course, but the biggest part is: "Thank you Yankees, for covering for the fact that we are wrong about everything just about all the time."

The Charade is Over

It's been quite a while since I have posted due to illness and trying to recover in the real world from said illness, so I've missed a lot and this post has been evolving in my head for a week and a half or so. Suffice it to say that I think the development of events have shown that I was right here.

And look, I'm fine with it. They don't have to contend next season, I think that makes sense. If you asked me 5 years ago if i thought the Jays would be contenders in 2009-10 I would have said no, because clearly they are trying to contend in 2006-08 and you have to step back. The problem is for some reason they screwed up the contending in 2006-08. Hopefully they have learned their lesson and will seriously attempt to contend in 2011-2013.

Could they have contended next season if they spent $140mil+? Probably, but the likelihood is your going to get a Mets instead of whatever you want if you do that, and nobody wants that.

The problem I have is that their PR push, and the idiot media is still trying to sell that money is no problem and there will be perennial contention or something else that doesn't make sense, in some vain attempt to keep season ticket holders from cancelling or something. What worries me is that this continuing shoveling of BS means that when the rubber hits the road again in 2 years the people above atos and Beeston are once again going to screw this thing up when the real money needs to be spent. Because they are still where the real problem lies.

Nothing about hiring atos, or Beeston staying, for reasons stated here and here, makes feel any better about that.

Non Sports Thought - The death of Michael Jackson has not worked out for me personally as well as I thought

Well I definitely didn't see this coming.

When he died suddenly in the summer i thought great! there will be a couple of weeks of media overkill I can pretty safely ignore and then you know he would completely disappear from the pop landscape, and in 20 years i'd hear his name and think "hey didn't he walk the dinosaur or sing can't touch this or something" and then not think about it again for another 20 years.

But it keeps going on.

It's like that old Saturday Night Live sketch, but much, much worse. 

Thoughts on Game 1

Awesome! How can any Yankee hater dislike that! I was entertained all the way through. From the utter dominance of Lee, to the incompetence of the Yankee offense to the parade of scared and nervous looking relievers. Who could have asked for more!

Now if Pedro can keep things going tonight this could be a beat down of epic proportions akin to 2003 and 2004, each of which were delicious in their own ways. I still remember listening to Tony Cornheiser after game 2 in 2003, he was so sure after the Yankees won game 2 that the Marlins were done, it was like there was no point in playing, let alone watching the games. That's probably what is so great about the Yankees losing in the playoffs, not only do they and their $200million payroll get embarrassed, but the media that hands them the World Series every year in Spring Training does too.

It's all on you now AJ, you wanted the money and "the chance to play for a contender", bet you never thought it quite meant this.

World Series Prediction

I really don't know, but I think it goes 6 at least. I think Sabathia and Lee are a wash, so I guess maybe it comes down to who's better between Pedro and Burnett. Burnett's last start was a head scratcher, is he about to go off the rails like he always seems capable of at any time? Any game could be a pitchers duel or a blowout, or anything in between.

What the hell, Phillies in 7, I can't get over the fact the ALCS ended up going 6 and the NLCS really was no contest.

All I can say is I can't imagine anything more beautiful than Chamberlain giving up the winning runs and/or Jeter grounding out weakly to end the clincher.

Now this is what I'm talking about Drunk Boy

More like this - it's funny 'cause it's true!

I guess Beeston finally decided to take the money

I can't at all say I'm surprised by this, and like many things you can look at this optimistically or pessimistically.

The optimist would say:

This is great news, Beeston was able to convince Rogers to invest the required funds into the team to be a contender so he would want his name to be attached going forward and would feel good about being involved.

The pessimist would say:

Beeston finally got fed up with offering other people millions of dollars to run the team and being turned down and figured out that he was going to share the blame anyways so he might as well collect the dollars for himself. Maybe a miracle will occur and they'll actually do something and he'll be a hero. At worst he goes home at the end of it all and sits on an even bigger pile of money.

I guess the middle ground is he got pissed off at being turned down and just ended up saying "I'll show you all!" I guess this is better than pessimist, but not as good a optimist.

Either way, I'm not going to believe this is great news until I see the team start to spend some real money, because it's a lot easier to spend $15mil on Beeston over 3 years and acquire the patina of a contender than spend $400mil+ over 3 years and actually be a contender.

When do the winter meetings start?

Some thinking before the World Series starts

Starting tomorrow night the Phillies and Yankees will both be competing for their second World Series Championship in the past 10 years. By rough back of the envelope calculations the Phillies have spent $800million doing this. A ridiculous amount of money to be sure, given all the starving people and uncured diseases etc. etc. But the Yankees have spent about $1.6billion in the same amount of time.

My original post was going to be about how the Yankees aren't getting value for money (let alone the Mets, Cubs and Dodgers), but then I thought about the absurdity of either figure.

Just think about it and let it sink in. It boggles the mind.

I guess this answers my question

Well I guess my questions here and here are answered by this. That's some nice doublespeak by atos, but really how hard is it to put together a decent proposal for this guy? One that would make it look like you were serious but new you couldn't win him with. Really, like you have to spend an afternoon or something. Head down to a pub with some of your new hires and order some beers and wings and throw something together. These guys are supposed to be good at what they do right?

If you haven't figured it out yet everything coming out of Mr. Viner's mouth was BS, there will be no attempt to compete next year. Any vague message attempting to assert otherwise is what i believe is called triangulation.

Is Schadenfreude the right word?

Watching the Yankees go down last night in a game they came back in was pretty awesome, and of course could only make one think of how potentially awesome it would be to see the Yankees get eliminated in this series. Not quite as awesome as them being eliminated by the red sox after taking a 3-0 lead, but i only got to see parts of that series while walking through casinos and airports, and listening to it on the radio, so it didn't have a great impact.

Probably not going to happen but one can dream.

Mr. Viner thinks we are all idiots because the people he talks too are

Via drunkjaysfans.

Now of course I didn't listen to or watch this interview, but i'm pretty sure that what djf has transcribed here is what was said. I did catch some of these comments on Sportsnet Connected  pretty much verbatim, so they seem to be what Mr Viner was saying. So let me see if I've got the whole broad narrative right.

A. Beeston thinks atos is going to be a great GM

B. Rogers trusts Beeston

C. Rogers is "Committed to Winning"

D. No budget has been set

E. Beeston and atos are developing a plan to build a winning team

F. If the plan is good it will be funded, whatever the cost.

This basically just confirms and expands this stuff.

That's the way I read it anyways. Which can only lead to the conclusion that if A though E are all true then F is going to happen, whatever the cost. That seems to be the reasoning that Mr. Viner is presenting here, I can't yet figure out how to read it any other way, if you take it all on face value.

Of course one, if they were a thinking human, would have to ask where this commitment to winning was the past 3 years at least, and why this money couldn't be spent then when Rogers was also "committed to winning". One thinking human might ask why, if A to F are all true, that Mr. Viner doesn't just straight out say that Rogers will spend whatever atos and Beeston want to spend next year in pursuit of a winning team. One thinking human would probably ask a lot of things, because this is just making my head spin, and I have a lot of questions. I think I'm a thinking human. But apparently Mr. Viner was not talking to any thinking humans, because unless djf's crack transcription team has a hate on for somebody, nobody asked any kind of intelligent questions about any of this.

There's a lot of ways to deconstruct this spin from hell, but if atos isn't a good enough GM to put together a plan that looks like it will produce a winner to a bunch of people who are supposed to implicitly trust his judgement, so he can get any amount of money he wants, why did they hire him in the first place?

If this is all true and the Jays will be a contending team next season, then I guess great! who cares about the recent past! But you know, I think I'm a thinking human.

Eve of Destruction

I meant to post something on this last night before the NLCS but never got the chance.

So the Dodgers have been eliminated and the Angels are on the verge. I think the important thing at this stage is that the Phillies can get maximum usage out of all their starters in the WS. Because that is going to be the key to the Phillies overcoming the Yankees. And of course the only thing that matters now is that the Yankees don't win the world series. I guess I have to hope that the ALCS somehow goes to 7 games and the Yankees end up using all their pitchers so they have to have Chad Gaudin start the first game. Or injuries, injuries, injuries!

Whatever, it's probably all over tonight for the Angels and then we get to sit around for a week and forget what baseball is.

Oh and the Phillies only had to use 6 relievers in a game once in the series, so I guess they overcame my expectations there.

Dodgeball!

So I'm hearing the Leafs played Dodgeball yesterday in practice. I imagine the 20 member hockey round tables are all excited about this on Sportsnet and TSN. I wonder if they have been out to interview any scientists about this. What are the leafs now anyways 0-5-1? The Bills should try something like this.

They'll probably win their next 2 and the fans/media will be planning the parade route again.

Phillies Win Game 1

Taking back home field advantage and using 6 relief pitchers just like I predicted - 3 more to go.

This reinforcement of my skills at analysis has caused me to make a prediction in the ALCS - for some reason Angels in 7.

Keep your eyes on the ball - Drunk Boy

I am still reading drunkjaysfans.com as I don't consider it media, and it's a pretty interesting source of info. I rarely follow their links and don't read any of the other jays sites they link too. I tried to comment once from my blackberry but it didn't seem to work. Basically it kind of fills the void left by the end of firejoemorgan.com.

I was dissapointed in this though. I mean basically who cares what Riccardi thinks anymore and why are you analyzing it? He's an arrogant prick, get over it. You didn't know this when they hired him? I mean they were looking to fill a fairly lousy job opportunity, clearly none of the good options wanted it, why are you surprised that an arrogant prick took it? The chances that he's ever going to say something good about the jays now that doesn't make him look good too are about zero.

What you should be concerned about is why the team has gone from hiring the only dick who would take the job, and either not firing him earlier when they figured out the couldn't do it, or not supporting him properly in it, too promoting somebody who couldn't refuse it. How is that an improvement?

Further, how the hell are they not taking on this crap head on? I ran into part of this conversation on the fan when i switched there looking for the Yankee/Twin game, and couldn't stop laughing. First that anybody could actually seriously think that Rogers is going to blow 130mil+ on this team next season, and next that Sam Cosentino, who I think actually still works for the Jays somehow, was the only guy who could see through it. I mean come on! Beeston hints that there's actually some hope they may spend enough money to legitimately compete next year and the media laps it up? How about going back at him with "where was that money the last 3 seasons", or "why shouldn't I believe that this isn't a naked attempt to sell seasons tickets". I don't pay attention but is there anybody in the media calling Beeston on anything?

Stop falling for the Riccardi distractions, and the Beeston smoke and mirrors. More like this.

Division Series Roundup

So what did we learn from the Division Series? None of these things are especially insightful but here goes.

1. It is awesome to watch the Red Sox and Yankees get embarrassed in the Post Season. Much better than watching them not make the post season. Last years 7 game elimination of the Red Sox by TB was ok, but getting swept this year and with a 2-out blown save in the final game to finish them off was awesome. Like a very satisfying slow motion train wreck. Detroit eliminating the Yanks in 2006 was the only better one I can think of.

2. The main strength of the Angels to me is depth. They don't really have a player you can say is the best in any series, but it does seem like they have 40 better than average guys on their 25 man roster. They just don't seem to ever run out of options

3. I never realized that giving up leads, leaving 30+ runners on base over 3 games and being thrown out at bases you are going back to is such a big part of "fundamental" baseball. But then I'm just a blogger.

4. For the 3rd season in a row the NL Central entrant goes out in a sweep. The NL Central must be the toughest division in baseball, because the winner just has nothing left after the regular season. Even when they've been cruising for a month and a half.

5. If the Phillies are going to defend they are going to use up everything to do it. The Bullpen is just going to make nothing easy, but I think they have the starters and offense to find a way to win 8 of 14. They are still my pick.Even if they have to use 6 pitchers every night to get thorough the last 3 innings. I think they can do that 8 times. I think they can.

6. What can you say about the Dodgers and Yankees? When the opposition does not show up or keeps shooting itself in the foot, it's a little difficult to judge your quality. But that's what the LCS is for.

What am I doing until Thursday night now? No Baseball, no Football. Pointless Hockey yay!!!

Thoughts on the new ATOS era

Haven't blogged at all since last weekends end of season madness, just been taking it all in through a very busy week waiting for my opportunity so here goes:

Congratulations Alex TooManyLetters (heretofore known as ATOS). Personally I hope this appointment is short lived, but how could anybody be unhappy for you. This is definitely a reward for some short number of years of (hopefully) hard work

I don't want to be really mean with my backhanded comments, it's not his fault he has lucked out like this. And I do hope atos all the luck and success in the world, because you know, we are all going to need it if this team is going to go anywhere. This is now the 3rd time the Jays have run this basic GM play, and I don't know if the media or fans have caught on (because I don't pay attention), but I certainly feel like I have. This is really just JP 2.0 without the embarrassing failure of a search for a General Manager from last time. Plus Rogers gets all the bonuses of the Canadian kid angle! I wonder what the next iteration's features will be.

Basically if this is really it, it's going to be 7 more years of smoke and mirrors supplied by atos with underfunded "attempts" at contention somewhere down the line. And then he gets fired. And we start all over again. Unless he totally screws up and starts telling people uplifting stories about his service in Gulf War I. Or fairies visit the city of Toronto and we all get ponies!

Forget about contending next season, no way management is giving this guy 100mil + in his first season to blow before they know he isn't a stark raving lunatic. And he wouldn't want it anyway. He has to tear this thing apart and then "build" something so he can justify his many million dollar contract extension after year 3, and guarantee his name is known so he can keep getting baseball jobs until he's 90. Good bye Hallady, hello 180+ Randy Ruiz strikeouts!

And whoever the next President is, forget about being wowed. There is no way anybody worth their salt would agree to coming into a situation like this. Minimum they would want a guaranteed 5 year budget and choice of all their own people. Rogers isn't going to give that, so this is what we get: Rookie unknown GM, 3rd rate "president", underfunded team.

The king is dead, same as the old boss.

One week wrap-up - What can you say

Well things are slowly grinding to a crushing end, I did not watch one game this weekend and feel as if I missed nothing. And I can't remember which games I watched last week or anything memorable from any of them, except I believe there was a fight I did not see (About time! I guess. Hard to hold a strong opinion when you can't even really remember it).


Anyways here's what the draft pick race looks like after the weekend sweep.


WAS 51-98
PIT 56-91
BAL 60-89
KAS 61-88
CLE 61-88
ARI 65-85
NYM 65-85
TOR 66-83


Cleveland is really making a move here, they could get themselves into 3rd place by the end of the season. The Jays are going to have to settle for 6th I think at best. I think I was a little worried last week that they could find themselves out of the top 10, but they have cemented that top 10 finish now.


I may actually watch the game tonight before MNF starts. Hmmm, this could make an interesting pool, will Purcey last until Kickoff?


I have to go to the Saturday game this week, free 500 level tickets from the progeny's baseball team.

The Return of David Purcey's Reign of Terror

Maybe it's just me but every time I see Purcey I pitch I think "this guy's stuff is really good, he can't be beat unless he just can't do anything with it". And then he pictches and he can't do anything with it and he gets beat. But here he is again, after a pretty un-impressive stint in AAA after blowing up real good at the beginning of the season.

Makes me wonder what they could get in a trade of Purcey, Richmond, Overbay and Encarnacion.

Stupid Trade Rumors

So I was looking up 2010 free agents at MLBtraderumors.com when I happened on this story in the side bar. I had to laugh like a mad man because come on, if an 8 year old Red Sox fan came up with it you would laugh and set them straight. I'm supposed to believe that Epstein floated a trade like this? And then I see that it's attributed to Bob Elliot in the Sun (who I haven't paid any kind of attention to in years).

If there was a story in the Sun where "Secret Government Sources" claimed there were regular alien landings in the Yukon, I would believe that before I believed this. I mean the purpose of this blog is to be specifically NOT paying attention to or commenting on the opinion class Sports Media, but this is ridiculous. I cannot believe anybody involved with any team officially or unofficially told Bob Elliot this in any seriousness. If I did not see it myself I would not believe that any newspaper would print it, but maybe that's how low things have gotten in the newspaper game. I don't think I can believe the Sun is going to print the scores correctly anymore.

Ignorant Jays Fan Free Agent Mad Science

What if the Jays were to get their hands on a good defense/decent offense 2B in the off season through free agency or other means (Orlando Hudson maybe, although I'm partial to Iwamura because he's been putting up good numbers in the AL East) and moved them to 3B, or even more diabolically kept them at 2B and moved Hill to 3B! Muwahahaha! Then keep Scutaro, add Abreu to play RF and get a good DH (still on my Damon/Matsui kick), move Lind to 1B, play snider in LF, trade Overbay, Encarnacion and some pitching for something else that's required (closer). And if Wells can find his way back to .800+ OPS. Eggsellent!!! (taps fingertips together in knowledge he loves it when a plan comes together)

The AL Central is Terrible

Yeah I know what a newsflash, but come on! The Jays are not a good team this year, but they have just been manhandling the central this year. It would have been a very different world if Beetston and Gillick hadn't chosen the East over the Central as the Jays home in the 3 division world.

Oh and the Jays have jumped back up to 11th in the draft pick race because of last night "heroics". You are one greedy bastard Aaron Hill! Good news though after the Rock Cities it's all AL East or above .500 teams until  the season mercifully ends. I'm sure there won't be any comeback wins against quality opponents like the Orioles.

Can you Take a Rotation with Brett Cecil in it Seriously?

If the Jays had a rotation of Halladay, X-Legitimately Good Veteran Pitcher, Shaun Marcum, Ricky Romero and Brett Cecil would I consider that good enough to contend? I would have to say no. I think he's good enough to be a 6th starter, that guy in the bullpen or AAA who is the best option to fill in for maybe even a month if necessary. Maybe even be your 4th best starter for a couple weeks. But I think if you're team is expecting him to make 25+ starts and not be a real drain on your bullpen, then you are expecting to much. I could be wrong about this of course, and they could get lucky with Cecil. But I would prefer they don't rely on getting lucky with the starters.

Not to say that I think that will always be the case, he seems like he's got a chance to be a pretty good starter for years in the future. I just don't think there is a real good chance it's going to be next year.

Nice Win

Well that was a nice win I guess, although 4-3 Twins would have been a pretty good loss. Cecil could have easily had the same outing and the bullpen could have given up a couple and there wouldn't have been that much of a difference. Well I guess if they are going to pointlessly win games they might as well do it at home. Good day for Lind though, top 20 and even top 10 in a lot of categories is pretty much assured now. Just got to hope this isn't by far the best season of his career.

The Way Forward Update!

I think I would also consider in order: Bobby Abreu, Hideki Matsui and Vladimir Guerrero (way way behind) as DH next season if Damon can't be signed. Apparently the turf is being replaced next season, so maybe you could even entertain Abreu as an RF/LF possibility. The other 2 guys I worry about the injuries (Guerrero a lot). The Angels and Yankees have to give up some of these guys after this season don't they?

This of course depends on the Jays being willing to bring the payroll up over $100mil of in order to create a legitimate contender. Otherwise just forget it and give the job to Ruiz or this Dopirak guy - where is that guy anyways?

NFL Season Preview

Are you ready for some football? I sure as hell am. And I don't mean the unwatchable amateur College or CFL type. I mean good old over hyped NFL football! Since of course I don't pay much attention to the media I can't do much of a preview, but here's my thoughts on who I expect to be playing in the second last weekend, a darkhorse from each conference and who I'll be watching this season, and why.

AFC

Championship Game:
Pittsburgh
New England

Darkhorse:
San Diego

I don't know how you bet against Pittsburgh and New England, and I guess San Diego is still the best of the rest.

NFC

Championship Game:
Minnesota
Philladelphia

Darkhorse:
Arizona

I think the Vikings can grind their way that far as long as Favre doesn't get it in his head that it's all about him. I guess it's Philadelphia's turn in the east this year. After that everybody seems pretty much just above average or bad. Arizona still has all the ingredients so it's possible. I think that I read somewhere that Chicago and New Orleans are supposed to be threats, but I'll believe that when I see it.

Teams I'm Watching:

Colts - Because they are my favorites. I'm pretty sure this is going to be an off year but they are going to be entertaining nonetheless and probably make the playoffs anyways
Arizona - How can you not!
Pittsburgh - Because they always seem to be playing another good team in a good game.
Vikings - Whenever I can
Bills - Because I'm pretty much forced too

Somebody Needs to Decide where this Team is Going

So since my last post the Jays have almost been .500. This just will not stand! Are they going to make a great race to as close to the bottom as they can get? Or are they going to make some valiant attempt to look good in the last 20 some games? Decisions need to be made, goals need to be set.


Don't get me wrong. Halladay pitched great on Friday, and well last night until he just ran out of gas. Romero was pretty good on Tuesday and it was a nice come from behind victory. And who doesn't like a nice blowout like Sunday? But they could have lost a couple of those wins and still not looked too bad doing it. Just saying.


WAS 47-92
KAS 54-85
PIT 54-84
BAL 56-83
ARI 62-79
CLE 60-79
NYM 62-77
TOR 62-77
OAK 62-77


I think Baltimore is uncatchable at this point, but the Jays can certainly get themselves to 5th, especially if these replacements for Rzep and Cecil can do their part. And shouldn't Romero be running up against some innings limit soon too as well? Just saying.

When Losing is Winning...or Something... Who Knows??

As much as I feel dirty for saying this, there really isn't much of an argument to make for the Jays to win many of the remaining 29 games this season. Other than the fact that you would like to avoid the embarrassment of a 95+ loss season at this point, who really cares? I don't want to see Halladay and Riccardo get tonged on for the last month, but other than that, Hill and Lind have every reason to be happy about what they have done, and can't go anywhere for years. Scutaro is too much of a complicated situation to figure out how a lousy end of the season is going to affect his decision to re-sign, let alone what the Jays plans would be. Other than those 3 guys is there anybody that is a question mark that anybody really cares passionately about retaining? I cannot think of anybody.

Clearly nobody outside of Rogers, and maybe even inside of Rogers, knows what is going to happen in the off season, or what the real plan for next season is.

So lose! If they really are going to tear it down in the off season you might as well let the feeling set in now. If you are going to really try to build a contender then the money and your plans was going to have to do the talking anyways. It will just make a sweeter rags to riches story if that's going to happen. Although I can't see the Jays catching the Orioles for last in the division.

The only positive I can see is losing more and moving up in the draft. As much as I crap all over the draft for being pointless (Rzep was picked in the 5th round in 2007, and really has been more successful so far than 99% of the players picked, what does that tell you about the cosmic crapshoot of the whole thing?), the higher you pick the better your options. And the Jays will have a lot of picks next year.

Random Non-Sports Thought

Americans are completely insane. I don't know what you say to that. I know real life is crazier than fiction but come on, this makes Adam Sandler/Will Farrell movies seem plausible.

The Past 5 Days In Handy Blog Form

I guess the best thing you can say is the Jays scored enough runs in 6 games to win all of them, however they scored most of those runs in one game and 1-5!

They called up 3 guys, none of them Accardo, and then League had another awesome outing in celebration.

I keep hearing that Cecil and Rzep are "auditioning for spots in next years rotation". I know that this is just pap for the media but I really don't think that's going to get it done next year unless Toronto is visited by magical fairies.

I didn't have to watch Saturday or Sunday's game! Yay me!

In good news the quest for a new backup 1B/LF in the draft the Jays have made some progress:

WAS 46-87
KAS 51-81
PIT 53-79
BAL 54-79
SD 58-76
OAK 58-74
CLE 58-73
NYM 59-73
TOR 59-72
ARI 60-73
CIN 60-73


9th place baby!


Also in other "good" news, I heard JP on the radio this weekend in a canned interview and I think he said the team is committed to a payroll of $64 million for next year in it's current contracts. So if you subscribe to my plan and figure the talk about the team having the money to build a contender next year is true, and you figure the payroll for a contender is around $120mil, I think you could get my list done for $56mil, including Figgins! WS 2010!

Some tips on how to score

1) It's easiest to score if you are travelling at full speed when you cross over the plate

2) If the catcher is still standing when you are close enough to start sliding you probably don't need to. If the catcher adjusts you can too!

3) If you have decided to slide it's better to try and go around the catcher as fast as possible rather than right at him slowly.

4) If you are going to go right at the catcher hit him with enough force to actually knock him off the plate. Lower a shoulder, get some elbows in there.

5) If you aren't going to follow the above tips, don't strike out to end the game with bases loaded.

Random Non-Sports Thought

Reading Matt Yglesisas today I am led to this awesome development in science. When I die, I hope I go out at the hands of an army of these, as they rampage across human civilization avenging our oppression against them. Of course they'll have to solve the cord problem first.

Random Sports Thought

So flipping through channels yesterday i passed by Connected or SportsCentre and there were 3, 3! flatulent gasbags doing a report on the 2-day Team Canada practice, FROM THE RINK. I mean holy crap who cares but those 3 guys and their producer! Really! I'm sure this is a point made by many bloggers in many places but i do feel the need to add my voice to the chorus. Stop already! Did they go to a panel of 7 or something after that to get into the "real analysis" of pro hockey players practicing skating for 2 days? I did not stick around to find out though as I value my eyes and if they had done that i would have to gouge out at least one.

True story. A couple years ago I was in the states during the baseball All Star break and had access to both ESPN and ESPN 2 and after the Home Run Derby there was a panel with John Kruk. The moderatorbot asked him how the derby was going to affect the pennant races, Kruk answered with something other than "it won't you dolt". My jaw literally fell out of my skull. You wouldn't believe how expensive that surgery is in the states.

I can now no longer watch sports panels shows. I have heard though that the typical NFL panel show is 20 people and includes a lion tamer, 2 psychics (for balance), a person with a French accent, at least one lower primate (with or without props) and an infant. Apparently particle physicists may be added this season on Fox. CBS is trying to sign Steven Hawking.

Bottom of the 9th Home Run! Sweep Avoiding Walk Off Win! Crazy Wild Pitch!

Well that was a thriller wasn't it. I managed to get tuned in just in time for the crazy wild pitch that ended it. I don't think I've ever seen a ball do that before. I thought it hit the front edge of the plate but it hit the ground in front of the plate and then off Zaun I guess, and shot straight up. It went up high enough that by the time Zaun caught it Scutaro was scoring and had slowed up because there was no chance to get him out. Howell clearly was in trouble the whole inning, I'm surprised he wasn't pulled.

This of course did not help the Jays in their (my) quest for a top 5 draft pick at all:

WAS 46-82
KAS 48-78
BAL 52-75
PIT 52-72
SD 54-74
ARI 55-72
CIN 55-71
OAK 55-71
CLE 55-69
NYM 58-70
TOR 58-67


Come on Jays, that back up catcher with great pitch calling ability is only an extended losing streak away. Good news! It's off to Boston and Texas. let's not go screwing with anybody's wild card hopes here!

Randy Ruiz Seems like a Nice Guy and all...

Listening to the game last night on the Radio, I heard some stuff about Randy Ruiz that made me wince. They just could not help but talk about him in glowing terms. What a great story! What a great guy! Is he ever "Intriguing"! (I don't know if they said that exactly, but it's the kind of thing that gets said).

For me Ruiz is the canary in the coal mine. If the team starts sending out signals that they are just fine with trying him out as the DH next season, and we get this nice shiny distraction stuff then my alarm bells are going to be going off and we'll know that it's cross your fingers time for next season. What's that, how do we plan on filling in the rotation after Halladay? Look over here at this big 31 year old underdog guy, why not just look at him and feel good. Bask in his feelgoodiness, who needs those questions.

DH is just about the easiest position to fill for an AL team. If you are serious about building a contender then you get a serious DH.

I can't wait for the Cecil Fielder references to start.

The Ignorant Jays Fan Draft Pick Race

I was thinking more about my post on what kind of draft pick the Jays could get this season so I thought, hey why not do a standings! That could be exciting! Or fill space!

Anyways, here we go:

WAS 44-81
KAS 47-77
BAL 51-74
PIT 51-71
SD 52-74
CIN 52-71
ARI 55-70
OAK 55-69
CLE 55-69
NYM 57-69
TOR 57-66

I think with some real effort 4th or 5th in the draft could be a real possibility, especially if they can get swept in their remaining 3 games against Baltimore. Aim High!

Correction:  The Jays actually have 6 games left against the Orioles, things are looking better than I thought!

Halladay pitches like crap, Jays lose.

So Halladay had another epically bad start last night, worse than the last one even. I was under the impression that he had been pretty lousy since coming back from the DL, but i looked it up and that's not true, just that he hadn't been as fantastic as he was earlier in the year. He has however blown a couple of leads, and if there is anything that an ace is supposed to do, it is not blow leads. That's my understanding of what an "ace" is anyways. That characteristic is the one that comes before, "ends losing streaks, doesn't start them" in the ace list.

Look I'm not starting a Roy Halladay sucks rant here, he clearly does not, he clearly is the opposite of suck. At the same time he is mortal, as proved recently, and he is at the point of his career where he is going to be more mortal more often. I don't want to be writing the above headline every 5 games in 2012.

Random NFL pre-season thought

I'll be blogging my ignorant other sports thoughts as the Jay's season winds down, so I'll start with some NFL.

I have no idea why anybody thought Trent Edwards was going to be a great quarterback. There may have been a point where I thought I might be proved wrong, but that time is gone.

I cannot figure out what they are going to do with TO, maybe they figure he will make Dick Jauron quit, since they can't get it together to fire him.

Then again maybe the plan is that he will create space for Edwards to throw to the backs even more often.

Change of Direction?

I know one of my stated goals for the second 1/2 was stay around .500, but then I was looking at draft history and realized that the Jays haven't had a top 5 Draft pick since 1997 (Vernon Wells at 4, 1996 Billy Koch at 4 actually, Romero was #6). They would have to drop like a stone at this point to get into the top 5 and jump over 5 or 6 teams, but I mean who really cares? This was a lost season to begin with, and tanking over the last 5-6 weeks isn't going to change the fact that Romero, Cecil and Rzep appear to have bright futures, or that Lind and Hill look like they can be counted on as middle of the order producers. Let this thing come apart, go for broke! You may end up with somebody's future utility middle infielder or mop-up man.

Accardo

I meant to post on this when it happened but forgt, so here we go. Clearly it is an absolute mystery why the Jays would want to send down one of their best relievers, who knows why you would want to have a quality effective arm in your bullpen when there are so many guys with ERA's around or (well) above 5.00. I mean who can't see the logic in that?

I'm going to guess that this has something to do with Cito, as i remember Derek Bell and David Wells being run out of town in the early 90's. But then these Jays aren't those Jays, and I don't see anybody in management ready to back up a truck of money to entice any replacements for Accardo. Maybe he's still in servitude thru next season, or they really hate him and don't care so it's all moot, but you got figure he could have been of some use recently. I'm sure he can give up HR's just as well as Brandon League. If he had pitched more than 18 innings this season maybe they could have even traded him for something.

Series Win!

Holy crap, the Jays won 2 of 3! From the Angels! A team above .500! And Halladay didn't pitch! Even the blind squirrel etc. etc.

Rubber Match!

How thrilling, a chance to actually win a series (no matter how small), rather than try desperately to keep from getting swept.

Buyers and Sellers

This has been bugging me since the trade deadline with Cleveland giving away Lee and Martinez for not a whole lot. Why the hell didn't JP trade for one or both of those guys? Seriously, they could use them. If they are serious about putting together a competitive team next year they are the type of player they need to be able to afford. And they should be able to afford to extend them.

And I don't mean this as a specific criticism of the Jays. I would think there would be a whole whack of teams that could see the value in acquiring one or both of them for what would be reasonable money and prospects for a run next season. The Mariners, Giants, Mets, Braves, Reds hell even KC or the Pirates could have pulled this off, and made themselves better right away.

Basically I have never understood the concept of "Buyers" and "Sellers" in trades. First of all in the whole concept of a trade is that both sides are both buying and selling something, but beyond that unless you really are just dumping salary, what keeps GM's from looking for value like Lee and Martinez would represent? Why do only current contenders trade for these guys at the deadline? Why couldn't you even be both?